宏观预期偏负面，基本金属恐慌性杀跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative, with the joint US - Israel strike on Iran reducing Middle East crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices, leading to inflation risks. The Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish. Basic metals are experiencing panic selling, with prices expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper: Macro - risk aversion has increased, causing copper prices to drop significantly. The Fed's stance is hawkish, and the US dollar index has risen, pressuring copper prices. Copper supply is tight, and demand is improving. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be volatile [6][7]. - Alumina: The non - ferrous sector has seen a collective sell - off, and alumina prices have fallen from high levels. The market is in a state of slight surplus, but cost support exists. It is expected to have wide - range volatility [7]. - Aluminum: With a pessimistic macro outlook, aluminum prices have declined. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and in the short term, prices are expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium term, the price center may rise [8][10]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price has declined following the aluminum ingot. Cost support is strong, and supply and demand are stable. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short and medium terms [17]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and zinc prices are declining. In the short term, prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of decline [13][14]. - Lead: The non - ferrous sector sentiment is weak, and lead prices are declining. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and prices are expected to be volatile [16][19]. - Nickel: The non - ferrous sector has corrected, and nickel prices have fallen. Supply pressure has slightly decreased, but inventories are high. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [20][21]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market has corrected following the decline in nickel prices. Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [22][23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has weakened, and tin prices have dropped significantly. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is also growing. Prices are expected to be volatile [23]. 3.2行情监测 - Commodity Index: On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [150]. - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On March 19, 2026, the index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [152].