五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-20-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound with improved supply - demand expectations, but it requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 93,000 - 96,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 12,000 - 12,400 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices have strong support. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,600 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ton [5] - Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline. It is necessary to observe the recovery of secondary smelter operations and the sustainability of battery enterprise purchases [9] - Zinc prices are in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the destocking situation of zinc ingot social inventory and be wary of risks caused by geopolitical conflicts and macro - policy changes [11] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 50,000 dollars/ton [14] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for SHFE nickel this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 dollars/ton [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have some support at the bottom. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 136,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,650 - 14,200 yuan/ton [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28] Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - Market Quotes: The LME copper 3M contract fell 1.05% to 12,211 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 94,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1,325 tons to 335,425 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased by over 20,000 tons [1] - Strategy Viewpoint: Although supply - demand expectations are improving, copper price recovery requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment [2] Aluminum - Market Quotes: The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 5.19% to 3,242 dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,930 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 40,000 tons, and inventory changes varied in different places [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: Overseas aluminum supply is still threatened, and domestic downstream start - up rates are rising. Aluminum prices have strong support [5] Lead - Market Quotes: The SHFE lead index fell 1.44% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 39.5 dollars to 1,892 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons [8] - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline [9] Zinc - Market Quotes: The SHFE zinc index fell 2.75% to 22,707 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 127 dollars to 3,090 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons [10] - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices are in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to destocking [11] Tin - Market Quotes: On March 19, the SHFE tin main contract fell 6.56% to 345,730 yuan/ton. SHFE inventory decreased by 322 tons, and LME inventory increased by 30 tons [13] - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14] Nickel - Market Quotes: On March 19, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 2.67% to 131,550 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable, and nickel iron prices rose [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: Nickel supply - demand has improved, but prices are expected to fluctuate [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Quotes: The MMLC index fell 6.06%. The LC2605 contract fell 5.01%. Weekly production increased by 3.2%, and inventory decreased slightly [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: Lithium carbonate prices have support at the bottom [19] Alumina - Market Quotes: On March 19, the alumina index fell 0.75% to 3,038 yuan/ton, and positions increased [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range for the main contract [22] Stainless Steel - Market Quotes: The stainless - steel main contract fell 1.18% to 13,855 yuan/ton, and positions increased. Spot prices and raw material prices changed slightly, and social inventory decreased [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Quotes: The main AD2604 contract fell 2.52% to 23,000 yuan/ton. Positions decreased, and inventory changed [27] - Strategy Viewpoint: Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28]