Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For sugar, due to the current situation where raw sugar prices are continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and with the increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. - For live pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons. The monthly sugar sales volume was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons. The industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. According to the prediction of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) at the end of February, due to the lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - Strategy View: There is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar production from sugarcane in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to a potential sugar production reduction. In the domestic market, as the sugar - cane crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. Coupled with potential future benefits from raw sugar, sugar prices may still have room for a rebound. It is advisable to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. Cotton - Market Information: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to February 2026, China imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From February 26 to March 5, the current - year cotton export sales in the United States were 35,800 tons, with a cumulative export sales of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; among them, the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export to China of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. In the March prediction, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points compared to the February prediction and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted production in the United States in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as the previous level. The predicted production in Brazil increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; the predicted production in India remained at 5.12 million tons; the predicted production in China increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [4]. - Strategy View: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is a neutral situation. The subsequent price trend mainly depends on the downstream operating situation, so it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. Protein Meal - Market Information: S&P Global's latest forecast shows that the corn planting area in the United States in 2026 will reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The predicted soybean planting area in the United States in 2026 is raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From February 26 to March 5, the United States exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the cumulative export of soybeans in the current year was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export of soybeans to China in the current year was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. In the March prediction, the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season was 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points compared to February and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season. Among them, the predicted soybean production in the United States was 11.599 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Brazil was 18 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted production in Argentina was 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared to the February prediction. In addition, in the March prediction, the predicted export volume of the United States remained at 4.286 million tons [8]. - Strategy View: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, crude oil prices fluctuate sharply in the short term, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [9]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The President of Indonesia stated that coal, crude palm oil and its derivatives production enterprises in Indonesia are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. According to data released by the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 to 15, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia stated that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. According to data from the Indonesian Bureau of Statistics, the total export volume of palm oil in Indonesia in January 2026 was 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by MPOB, the palm oil production in Malaysia in February was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons compared to the same period last year. According to data released by AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 921,000 tons, a 56.9% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by ITS, the export volume of palm oil products in Malaysia from March 1 to 15, 2026 was 926,000 tons, a 43.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to data released by the Indian Refiners Association (SEA), as of the end of February, the inventory of vegetable oils in India was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons compared to the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. According to MYSTEEL data, in the week of March 13, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. - Strategy View: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the sharp increase in short - term crude oil prices drives the strengthening of oils and fats prices. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain at a high level, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is advisable to maintain a bullish view on oils and fats in the medium term [12]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, the egg prices across the country were stable with some increases. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were quite confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's egg prices across the country may be mostly stable with a few increases [13]. - Strategy View: Although the egg - laying capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. There is an expectation of a delayed supply. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. This makes the near - month valuation of the futures market seem relatively high. It is advisable to maintain the idea of short - selling on rebounds in the near - term, and pay attention to the support brought by rising cost factors in the long - term [14]. Live Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to decline generally. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 10.02 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.08 yuan to 9.91 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi decreased by 0.15 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram. The breeding side had a strong willingness to sell, and the price - holding mentality of the breeding side in most areas weakened. It is expected that today's pig prices may continue to decline [15]. - Strategy View: Considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still relatively high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is not high under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. In the short term, the spot price may remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price due to the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures market maintains a premium structure, and it is advisable to short - sell on rebounds. In the long - term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward drive of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessively high premium. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [16].
五矿期货农产品早报-20260320
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-20 01:01