国新国证期货早报-20260320

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings 2. Core Views of the Report - On March 19, the A - share market and multiple futures markets showed various trends affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and geopolitical events [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 19, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39% to 4006.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.02% to 13901.57 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.11% to 3309.10 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2127.5 billion yuan, an increase of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index was weak on March 19, closing at 4583.25, a decrease of 75.08 from the previous period [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On March 19, the coke weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1743.4, a decrease of 12.2. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated, closing at 1195.4 yuan, a decrease of 8.9 [2][3] - For coke, port spot prices were stable, supply from coke enterprises was increasing, and demand from steel mills was rising. For coking coal, prices in some areas changed, supply from major mines was normal, and demand from coke - steel enterprises increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Expectations of firm crude oil prices led to an upward trend in US sugar on Wednesday, and factors such as the rise in US sugar and increased spot prices drove the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract to rise on Thursday and slightly higher at night. China's finished sugar production from January to February was 677.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [4] Rubber - With the opening of the tapping season in Yunnan, Indonesia entering the peak - production season, and Cote d'Ivoire starting tapping, supply is expected to increase. Concerns about a global economic recession may reduce demand, causing the Shanghai rubber to decline on Thursday and slightly lower at night. China's rubber tire exports in the first two months of 2026 increased [4][6] Palm Oil - On March 19, palm oil futures continued to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract P2605 closed at 9796, a 1.07% increase from the previous trading day. From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased compared to the same period last month [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market, on March 19, the CBOT soybean main contract rose 0.41% to 1168 cents per bushel. US soybean export sales and shipments decreased. In the domestic market, the main soybean meal M2605 contract rose 0.2% to 3042 yuan per ton. Import delays, low inventory, and high import costs supported the price [6] Live Hogs - On March 19, the main live hog contract LH2605 fell 1.34% to 10335 yuan per ton. Supply was abundant due to increased planned slaughter by large - scale farms and high sow inventory. Demand was weak in the off - season, and the overall bottom - fishing efforts were limited [6] Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai copper contract 2605 weakened significantly, closing at a new low for the year. Macro - factors such as Fed's hawkish expectations and high inventory levels led to the decline. Spot trading was still cautious [6][7] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 15055 yuan per ton, with a decrease of 43 lots in inventory compared to the previous day. The crude oil market and short - fiber polyester prices were rising, and container prices also increased [7] Logs - The main log 2605 contract opened at 810.5 on March 19, with a low of 804.5, a high of 817, and closed at 814.5, with an increase of 60 lots. Spot prices in Shandong remained stable, and those in Jiangsu increased [7] Iron Ore - On March 19, the main iron ore 2605 contract closed down 0.55% at 807.5 yuan. Shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and inventory accumulated. However, there may be demand for replenishment from steel mills, so prices were expected to fluctuate [7] Asphalt - On March 19, the main asphalt 2606 contract rose 4.52% to 4625 yuan. Domestic refineries reduced production due to unstable raw material supply, inventory was low, and demand had not started yet. Prices may follow oil prices [7] Steel - On March 19, rb2605 was reported at 3135 yuan per ton, and hc2605 at 3302 yuan per ton. Due to the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, the global economic risk increased, and steel prices may adjust slightly in the short term [7] Alumina - On March 19, ao2605 was reported at 3027 yuan per ton. Geopolitical tensions and macro - panic led to a decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although the price was supported by supply concerns, the oversupply situation remained, and the price would oscillate at a high level [7] Shanghai Aluminum - On March 19, al2605 was reported at 24180 yuan per ton. The US interest - rate remained stable, and the Middle - East situation intensified. The supply side was stable, and the demand side showed flexible restocking, but overall downstream support was still weak [8]