格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The change in the interest rate trend expectations of major central banks has significantly increased the holding cost of non - interest - generating precious metals, suppressing the price trends of gold and silver. After a sharp short - term decline, the short - selling force has been somewhat released, and the prices may fluctuate widely at the current level. Continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 4.99% to $4651.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 6.16% to $72.81 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 4.99% to 1026.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 6.07% to 17660 yuan per kilogram. [1] Important Information - On March 19, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.858 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1062.135 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 77.46 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15186.94 tons. [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 92.8%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate hike is 9.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate hike is 0.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 90.6%. [1] - On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep the interest rate unchanged and opened the channel for "possible interest rate hikes". The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting and mentioned in the statement that it is concerned about the impact of rising oil prices. [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 205,000, lower than the estimated 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week of March 7 increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million. [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said on March 19 that the US did not attack Iran's energy infrastructure, has allowed Iranian oil to continue to be transported through the Gulf region, and may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the next few days. In addition, the US may release strategic oil reserves again to suppress oil prices. [1] - France, the UK, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan announced in a joint statement that they are prepared to take appropriate measures together to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. [1] - Iran said its offensive and defensive capabilities are unprecedented and warned that it will retaliate if its energy facilities are attacked again. According to Iranian lawmakers, the Iranian parliament is promoting a bill that requires relevant countries to pay tolls and taxes to Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is used as a safe passage for ship traffic, energy, and food transportation. [1] Market Logic - The US Producer Price Index in February rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market forecast of 3.0%. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in 2026 and leading to bets on interest rate hikes. The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March, in line with market expectations. The European, British, and Japanese central banks all announced unchanged interest rates, and the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecast. [2] - The US dollar index fell 1.10% to 99.19 on Thursday, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond first rose and then fell, closing at 4.25%. After Iran counterattacked the oil and gas facilities of relevant Middle - Eastern countries, the US Treasury Secretary said that sanctions on Iranian oil on sea tankers might be lifted, and Israel would "suspend" air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. International crude oil prices rose sharply on Thursday and then declined. [2] Trading Strategy - The market's short - term volatility has increased, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks. [2]