Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand is marginally improving and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no strong trend - driving force yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - Due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are fluctuating widely. There is a need to pay attention to subsequent negotiation progress and geopolitical situation development [5]. - In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties [9][15]. - For manganese silicon, factors such as supply - demand pattern, high inventory, and weak downstream demand are mostly priced in. Future market trends are mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon [10]. - In the short term, coking coal prices may have upward pulses due to market sentiment spillover, but in the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [15]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support, while polysilicon is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. - Float glass is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas [23][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 41,676 tons, a net increase of 27 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4492 million lots, a net decrease of 65,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 473,996 tons, a net decrease of 292 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.1432 million lots, a net decrease of 28,781 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate data from January to February was still weak. The real - estate investment repair momentum was insufficient, and the terminal demand was likely to remain weak. The hot - rolled coil demand recovered quickly, the output increased slightly, and the inventory entered the depletion stage. The rebar supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased slightly, showing a neutral performance overall [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.43% (-3.50). The position changed by -8625 lots to 446,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.78 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly in Hebei after the end of production restrictions. The pig iron output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mill profitability rate continued to rise slightly. The port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. Overall, the overseas supply of iron ore fluctuated at a high level and declined marginally. The BHP negotiation issue intensified the expectation of resource structural tension. The iron ore price fluctuated widely due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.81% intraday and closed at 6188 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6190 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 0.48% intraday and closed at 5824 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but these factors were mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) initially rose due to the influence of crude oil sentiment but then fell due to the market environment, and finally rose 0.26% intraday and closed at 1159.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1272.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 113 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1284 yuan/ton, a premium of 124.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1215 yuan/ton, a premium of 55.5 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 0.03% intraday and closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1725.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 4.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1710.5 yuan/ton, a discount of 10.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, coking coal prices benefited from the energy sentiment premium brought by the high - level crude oil due to the continuous perturbation of the Middle - East situation, and coke prices mainly followed the cost - side coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. The inventory structure will show that downstream steel mills and coking plants actively reduce inventory, and upstream mines accumulate inventory, which will restrict the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8285 yuan/ton, a change of -1.07% (-90). The weighted contract position increased by 14,461 lots to 378,927 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 815 yuan/ton for the main contract; the spot price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 38,550 yuan/ton, a change of -3.88% (-1555). The weighted contract position decreased by 3390 lots to 50,915 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 43.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5200 yuan/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern was weak on both sides. Due to the influence of overseas geopolitical conflicts and energy price fluctuations, the cost support was relatively solid. It is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support [18]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals were weak, and the price pressure remained. The inventory of the silicon wafer link was slowly depleted, and the downstream enterprise operating rate recovery was less than expected. The polysilicon inventory pressure increased, and the downstream restocking was only for rigid demand. The market new orders were few, and the price declined. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1066 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.56% (-28). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, a decrease of 1.413 million cases (-1.86%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 4218 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 17,285 short positions [22]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1211 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.57% (-32). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1201 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons (-1.86%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 6678 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 25,634 short positions [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in fuel costs, providing cost support. The market demand improved slightly, and the overall trading activity increased. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1110 yuan/ton [23]. - Soda ash: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in international oil prices, driving up the prices of coal - chemical and soda ash. However, as the situation stagnated, the upward momentum of coal - chemical weakened. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand for raw material restocking by glass enterprises was still strong. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in main production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1180 - 1250 yuan/ton [25].
黑色建材日报-20260320
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-20 01:39