能源化工日报 2026-03-20-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the crude oil market, it is recommended to start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil, widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is advisable to take profits at high prices [3]. - Regarding urea, considering the high expected start - up in the first quarter, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices, and there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand when the alternative valuation reaches the extreme [6]. - In the rubber market, due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. For hedging, it is suggested to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [11]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but attention should be paid to risks as the price has risen too much [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position as the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high and the valuation upward repair space is limited [18]. - For polyethylene, when the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, it is advisable to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. - For PX, the load is expected to further decline, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but attention should be paid to risks [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking. However, attention should be paid to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Quotes: The INE main crude oil futures closed up 63.70 yuan/barrel, a rise of 8.48%, at 814.90 yuan/barrel. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 324.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.91%, to 5011.00 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 584.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.45%, to 6170.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Strategic Views: Start a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil. Widen the Platts north - south different oil - type spread before Libya's mid - year production increase. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - Market Quotes: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 205 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 150 yuan/ton, in Henan by 115 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 52.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 253.00 yuan/ton, at 3182 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 280 yuan [2]. - Strategic Views: Since methanol already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits at high prices [3]. Urea - Market Quotes: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 1 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 4 yuan/ton, at 1859 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategic Views: Considering the high expected start - up in the first quarter, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Short at high prices. There may be short - term marginal positive support for demand when the alternative valuation reaches the extreme [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: Due to the sudden escalation of the Middle East situation and the sharp rise in crude oil and methanol, butadiene rubber rose. The market changes rapidly. The long side believes in factors such as limited rubber production increase in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short side believes in uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand [8]. - Strategic Views: Trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and consider allocating out - of - the - money call options for butadiene rubber. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short the RU2609 contract [11]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC05 contract rose 125 yuan, at 5860 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5700 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 160 (- 105) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 34 (- 23) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide in Wuhai was quoted at 2650 (+50) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1280 (+30) US dollars/ton, and caustic soda spot was 687 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC start - up rate was 81.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream start - up rate was 39.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The in - plant inventory was 37.7 (- 8.1) tons, and the social inventory was 140.7 (+0.3) tons [12]. - Strategic Views: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price is expected to rebound, but attention should be paid to risks as the price has risen too much [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Quotes: The cost - side East China pure benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene active contract closed at 8375 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was - 275 yuan/ton, narrowing by 221 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price was 10000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton. The styrene active contract closed at 10218 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The basis was - 218 yuan/ton, weakening by 550 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 19.75 yuan/ton, down 38.25 yuan/ton. The EB non - integrated device profit was 164 yuan/ton, up 198 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 71.79%, down 2.32%. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.25 (+0.60) tons. The demand - side three - S weighted start - up rate was 40.79%, up 10.34%. The PS start - up rate was 51.50%, up 2.10%. The EPS start - up rate was 58.76%, up 46.59%. The ABS start - up rate was 69.50%, down 1.20% [17]. - Strategic Views: Due to the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict, stay on the sidelines with an empty position as the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high and the valuation upward repair space is limited [18]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The main contract closed at 8916 yuan/ton, up 485 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8725 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton. The basis was - 191 yuan/ton, weakening by 120 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The production enterprise inventory was 56.83 (- 0.71) tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 (+0.48) tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 235 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 21 yuan/ton [20]. - Strategic Views: When the number of vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz increases marginally, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [21]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The main contract closed at 9158 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The basis was - 208 yuan/ton, weakening by 280 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The production enterprise inventory was 59.62 (- 6.14) tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 (- 1.244) tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 (- 0.29) tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 242 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 45 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 513 yuan/ton, a month - on - month expansion of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - Strategic Views: In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX05 contract rose 40 yuan, at 9914 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 134 (- 122) yuan. The Chinese PX load was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The restart of Daxie was postponed, the maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical was postponed, and the Kuwaiti device overseas was shut down. The PTA load was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. In March, South Korea exported 15.7 (- 1.8) tons of PX to China. The inventory at the end of January was 464 (- 1) tons. The PXN was 211 (- 32) US dollars, the South Korean PX - MX was 102 (- 7) US dollars, and the naphtha crack spread was 269 (- 4) US dollars [26]. - Strategic Views: The PX load is expected to further decline, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [27]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA05 contract rose 44 yuan, at 6834 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 168 (- 74) yuan. The PTA load was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The downstream load was 87.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 (+2.6) tons. The disk processing fee rose 17 yuan to 330 yuan [28]. - Strategic Views: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is expected to be difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but attention should be paid to risks [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG05 contract rose 371 yuan, at 5220 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 113 (+46) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The synthetic gas - based production load was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The ethylene - based production load was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The downstream load was 87.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 18 was 0.77 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 (- 5.7) tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2781 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2283 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 1280 US dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price fell to 550 yuan [30]. - Strategic Views: The load is expected to continue to decline, imports are expected to decrease significantly, and the port inventory is expected to turn to de - stocking. However, attention should be paid to risks due to excessive short - term price increases [31].