对二甲苯：短期震荡市；PTA：短期震荡市；MEG：供应偏紧，中期趋势偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX: Short-term volatile market, medium-term trend remains strong [1][4] - PTA: Short-term correction, medium-term remains strong [1][4] - MEG: Supply is tight, medium-term trend is strong [1][5] Core Viewpoints - PX: Near the end of the month, the terminal sales of the polyester industry chain are difficult, price transmission is blocked, and raw material prices follow the correction. The supply side has a domestic PX load of 84%, and the demand side has a PTA load of 78%. The PX - naphtha spread has narrowed to $100/ton, and the aromatics blending oil economy has recovered [4]. - PTA: There is a short-term correction, but the medium-term remains strong. The supply side has a PTA operating rate of 78%, and the demand side has a polyester load of 87.7%. The profit transmission is smooth, and the PTA valuation is mainly driven by PX costs [4]. - MEG: The expected reduction in imports is expected to expand, and the trend of ethylene glycol is strong. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has dropped from 80% to 66%, and the import volume of ethylene glycol has sharply decreased. The demand side has a polyester load of 87.2%, and the prices of ethylene glycol spot and futures have strengthened with costs [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - PX: The closing price of the PX main contract yesterday was 9914, up 40 with a daily increase of 0.41%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 370, down 118 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The closing price of the PTA main contract yesterday was 6834, up 44 with a daily increase of 0.65%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 168, down 74 from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The closing price of the MEG main contract yesterday was 5220, up 371 with a daily increase of 7.65%. The 5 - 9 month spread was 113, up 46 from the previous day [2]. - PF: The closing price of the PF main contract yesterday was 8358, up 176 with a daily increase of 2.15%. The 3 - 4 month spread was -166, up 22 from the previous day [2]. - SC: The closing price of the SC main contract yesterday was 814.9, up 79.5 with a daily increase of 10.81%. The 2 - 3 month spread was -3.4, down 6.6 from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - PX: The CFR China price of PX yesterday was $1263.67/ton, up $14 from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was $214.58/ton, down $113.5 from the previous day [2]. - PTA: The East China price of PTA yesterday was 6865 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 280.7 yuan/ton, up 36.78 yuan from the previous day [2]. - MEG: The spot price of MEG yesterday was 5154 yuan/ton, up 354 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Naphtha: The MOPJ price of naphtha yesterday was $1160.5/ton, up $121.25 from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was -$4.34/barrel, the same as the previous day [2]. - Brent: The Dated Brent price yesterday was $117.44/barrel, up $4.91 from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - PX: The end - of - day naphtha price rose, and the current estimated price of April MOPJ is $1024/ton CFR. Today's PX price rose, with the end - of - day physical goods for May at 1246/1291 (long) in negotiation and a buy order for June at 1220, but no transactions. Today's PX estimated price is $1264/ton, up $14 from yesterday [3]. - PTA: This week, the PTA device changes include the load reduction of Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton and Fujian Baihong's 2.5 million - ton devices, the short - stop recovery of Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 million - ton device, the restart of Yizheng's 3 million - ton device, and the load increase of other individual devices. As of Thursday, the domestic PTA load was adjusted to 78.2% [3]. - MEG: As of March 19, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 66.45% (a 0.32% decrease from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 72.32% (a 2.34% decrease from the previous period) [3]. - Polyester: As of Thursday this week, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was approximately 87.7% [3]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: -1 [4] - PTA trend intensity: -1 [4] - MEG trend intensity: 0 [4] Strategies and Suggestions - PX: Unilaterally focus on the 9000 - 12000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [4]. - PTA: Unilaterally operate in the 6200 - 8000 range, 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage, and long PX short PTA [4]. - MEG: Unilaterally operate in the 4500 - 6000 range and 5 - 9 month spread positive arbitrage [5].