富宝资讯今日早评-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of coking coal has recovered, with weak real - time supply - demand, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - The domestic methanol market has high - level production, increasing demand, and a de - stocking trend in ports. It is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - The national pig price continues to decline, with high pressure on the breeding side to sell, limited demand growth, and the short - term price is expected to be weak [4]. - Palm oil is affected by multiple factors, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate in the short term and show a weak - fluctuating trend in the medium term [6]. - The supply - demand data of rebar is neutral to positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [7]. - Copper prices are expected to have increased volatility and be under pressure in the short term due to macro - pressure and high inventory [8]. - Aluminum prices have weakened upward momentum and may experience high - level corrections, with attention to volatility [9]. - Polypropylene is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term due to cost pressure and supply tightening expectations [10]. - Float glass is expected to have price fluctuations in the short term with high - level inventory slowly decreasing [11]. - The bond market is in a triangular shock - convergence state, waiting for guidance from the Politburo meeting [12]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak demand and inventory pressure [12]. - Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, with limited further downward space [13]. - Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term, with limited short - term downward space [14]. - Crude oil is in a game period, and it is recommended to maintain a long - bias trading idea in the medium term [16]. - PTA follows crude oil and maintains a long - bias trading idea in the medium term [17]. - Natural rubber is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18]. Summary by Commodity Coking Coal - 523 coking coal mines have a capacity utilization rate of 88.6%, a daily raw coal output of 196.9 million tons, and a raw coal inventory of 536.7 million tons. Supply has recovered, but there is still pressure from Mongolian coal imports, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3145 yuan/ton. Port inventory is 126.17 million tons, and production enterprise inventory is 48.54 million tons. The domestic capacity utilization rate is 92.87%, and downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.92% [2]. Pig - On March 19, the average wholesale price of pork was 16.11 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from the previous day. The breeding side has high pressure to sell, and demand growth is limited [4]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects prices to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton. Geopolitical and economic factors affect the market, and domestic inventory pressure is high [5]. Soybean Meal - As of March 19, the domestic spot price is stable with a slight increase. The M05 contract has strong support at 3000 yuan/ton [6]. Iron Ore - From March 9 - 15, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3048.8 million tons, an increase of 151.0 million tons. The supply - demand situation is complex, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the medium term [6]. Rebar - As of the week of March 19, the output was 203.33 million tons, an increase of 8.03 million tons. Inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and apparent demand has increased significantly [7]. Copper - The Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's hawkish stance have put pressure on copper prices. The mine supply is tight, but production has not decreased, and social inventory is at a relatively high level [8]. Aluminum - In January 2026, the global primary aluminum supply was in surplus. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects overseas supply, and domestic inventory digestion is not as expected [9]. Polypropylene - The spot price in East China is 8855 yuan/ton. The weekly output is 72.79 million tons, and commercial inventory is 86.17 million tons. Cost pressure is rising, and supply is expected to tighten [10]. Float Glass - The average industry start - up rate is 70.55%, and the average profit is - 87.12 yuan/ton. Enterprise inventory is slowly decreasing, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [11]. Ten - Year Treasury Bond - The central bank emphasizes risk prevention. The bond market is in a triangular shock - convergence state, waiting for guidance from the Politburo meeting [12]. Lead - On March 19, the spot lead price was 16450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. Supply is increasing, but demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [12]. Gold - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, but there are signs that the market bets on the end of the war. Inflation expectations are rising, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Silver - The conflict parties show restraint on energy - facility attacks. Inflation expectations are rising, and silver is expected to oscillate at a high level with limited short - term downward space [14]. Crude Oil - Israel will suspend subsequent attacks on Iranian energy facilities, and the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil. The market is in a game between suppressing panic and supply shortage [16]. PTA - The social inventory is 385.41 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.68%. Polyester demand is weak, and it follows crude oil in the medium term [17]. Natural Rubber - As of March 15, 2026, the social inventory is 136.49 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons. Supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation [18].