美联储鹰派决议，铂钯?幅回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 19, 2026, the platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly, with the platinum main contract down 7.66% to 506.95 yuan/gram and the palladium main contract down 8.18% to 371.45 yuan/gram [1] - The platinum price is expected to oscillate due to the high energy prices driving up inflation expectations in the US and delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectations [2] - The palladium price is also expected to oscillate as the short - term supply disturbances persist while the long - term supply - demand situation tends to ease, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The Fed's hawkish resolution led to a sharp decline in platinum prices. The March Fed meeting paused rate cuts as expected, and the dot - plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut in 2026. The Iran situation is the main trading line. On one hand, the risk - aversion sentiment supports precious metal prices; on the other hand, high oil prices increase inflation expectations, delay the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and may lead the US into a stagflation stage, suppressing prices. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the current US - Iran geopolitical conflict still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices [2] - Outlook: The platinum price is expected to oscillate [2] Palladium - Main Logic: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium tends to ease, but short - term supply disturbances still exist, and it currently follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - Outlook: The palladium price is expected to oscillate [3] Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [48] Non - ferrous Metals Index - Performance: On March 19, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [50]