研究所晨会观点精萃-20260320

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index initially rose above 100 due to global central banks' inflation - fighting stance and market bets on Fed rate hikes. Later, it weakened as oil prices dropped, and global risk appetite improved. Domestically, the economy and inflation in China from January to February were better than expected, but policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. Short - term market trading focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks and the Fed rate decision. Overall, short - term asset performance is volatile, and caution is advised [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Finance - Global Situation: The US dollar index and US Treasury yields weakened, and global risk appetite improved due to factors such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil and a "pause" in Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. - Chinese Economy: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. - Policy: The government's work report in 2026 has lower development goals and policy intensity compared to 2025. - Asset Performance: Short - term stock indices, government bonds, and most commodities are in a volatile state. The energy - chemical sector is slightly stronger, and short - term cautious operations are recommended [3]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors like precious metals and industrial metals, the domestic stock market fell sharply. In the short term, stock indices will fluctuate due to better - than - expected domestic economic data but intensified geopolitical shocks and a potentially hawkish Fed rate decision. Short - term cautious waiting is advisable [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market declined significantly. Later, as the US dollar weakened, the decline narrowed. Short - term precious metals will fluctuate, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [5][6]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel spot and futures markets remained weak on Thursday. Although costs have fallen, high oil prices still support costs. Steel inventories have peaked and declined, and production has increased. It is recommended to view the market as range - bound and beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [7]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore spot and futures prices fell slightly. Demand may recover slightly, and supply is in the off - season. The short - term upside of iron ore prices is limited, and the risk of a sharp fall after a rise should be noted [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly, and the futures trends diverged. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change, and their futures prices are recommended to be treated with a range - bound mindset [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Since 2026, copper prices have been in a high - level shock. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. Although copper mines are tight, extreme shortages are unlikely. Refined copper production is growing rapidly, but high prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are accumulating [9]. - Aluminum: On Thursday, the non - ferrous metal sector fell sharply. Domestic aluminum supply is rigid, and inventories are accumulating. Overseas supply is tight due to the Middle - East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc ore processing fees have changed, and smelting production is at a relatively high level. Demand is not optimistic, and inventories are accumulating seasonally [10]. - Lead: The production of primary and secondary lead is rising seasonally, while demand has entered the off - season. Inventories at home and abroad are at high levels [11]. - Nickel: The core issue is at the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has declined, and the supply of MHP may decrease. Nickel prices have support below but limited upside due to high inventories [11]. - Tin: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is accelerating, and smelting enterprises are resuming work. Demand is highly differentiated, and inventories are increasing [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led to significant damage to energy facilities, but then the situation showed signs of easing. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly [13][14]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices followed the rise and then fall of oil prices. Terminal demand is showing negative feedback, but low inventories provide short - term support. Supply will remain low, and prices will follow oil price fluctuations [14]. - PX: The polyester sector did not follow the sharp rise in oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to downstream negative feedback, but the tight supply situation continues. The future trend depends on oil prices [14]. - PTA: PTA prices fell slightly. Although inventory pressure has decreased, upstream strength has squeezed downstream profits, leading to production cuts. If oil prices remain strong, the cost - driven logic will continue, but negative feedback may limit the upside [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: Some port inventories have been pre - sold for export, keeping the price high. Downstream demand is under pressure, but exports may create upside space [15]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices fluctuate significantly following the energy - chemical sector. Downstream production cuts may limit the upside, but it will remain relatively strong in the short term [16]. - Methanol: The inland methanol market has risen, and port inventories are decreasing. The market is affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the overall pattern is strong, with prices expected to show a pulsed upward trend [16][17]. - PP: The price of PP has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply has decreased more significantly, supporting the price. The key factor is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [17]. - LLDPE: The price of LLDPE has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply is tight, and although downstream profit margins are compressed, the price remains firm. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran conflict [18]. - Urea: The domestic urea price has weakened slightly. Port inventories have decreased, and daily production is high. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to return to a range - bound state [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Overnight, soybean futures rose slightly. The increase in oil prices has boosted international grain and oil prices. US soybean export sales have decreased [19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: In March in China, the arrival of imported soybeans has decreased seasonally, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are decreasing, supporting the price of soybean meal. The expected increase in the supply of rapeseed has suppressed the sentiment of going long on rapeseed meal [19][20]. - Oils and Fats: Overnight, soybean futures in the CBOT rose slightly. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction, while rapeseed oil trading is light, and palm oil prices may be supported by inventory decline [20]. - Corn: The sales of corn in production areas have slowed down, and prices are temporarily stable. However, alternative grains and potential rice auctions may limit the price increase and trading sentiment [20]. - Pigs: The pig - breeding industry is in a period of capacity adjustment. Although demand is improving marginally, it is still in the off - season. The risk of a further decline in pig prices exists in the short term, and there is also risk in the futures market [21].