格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures market is "oscillating slightly bearish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond futures market is expected to be oscillating slightly bearish in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Thursday, most of the bond futures' main contracts opened lower, with an upward trend in the morning session and a slight upward movement followed by a slight decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2606 rose 0.07%, the 5 - year TF2606 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2606 rose 0.03% [1] - On Thursday, the Wande All - A index opened lower, oscillated downward throughout the day, closed with a negative line, down 2.12% with a trading volume of 2.13 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 2.06 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 130 million yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 245 million yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 115 million yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.43%, also the same as the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.99 BP to 1.31%, the 5 - year increased by 0.19 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year increased by 0.77 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year increased by 3.03 BP to 2.39% [1] - On March 18th, the Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote stable economic growth and a reasonable recovery of prices. It will use various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity and keep the growth of social financing scale and money supply in line with economic growth and price level targets [1] - On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced that it would keep the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1] - On Thursday, it was announced that the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 205,000, lower than the estimated 215,000 and the previous value of 213,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the week of March 7th in the US increased by 10,000 to 1.857 million [1] 3.3 Market Logic - From January to February, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 1.8%, while the market expected a decline of 2.7%, and it decreased by 3.8% in 2025. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 6.3%, higher than the market expectation of 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, higher than the market expectation of 2.4%. China's exports in US dollars increased by 21.8% year - on - year, better than the estimated 7.3% [2] - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.9%; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% decline. The overall inflation level in China exceeded expectations in February [2] - The central bank governor stated in an interview that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [2]