交银国际每日晨报-20260320

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5%-3.75% during the March FOMC meeting, marking the second consecutive meeting without a rate cut. The meeting's focus was on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which has led to a surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel, impacting inflation and narrowing the Fed's policy options [1][2] - The window for rate cuts has been pushed back to the second half of 2026 due to two main constraints: ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices and the combined impact of tariffs and energy shocks on the Fed's inflation narrative. A clearer geopolitical situation and a downward trend in core inflation are necessary for the rate cut window to open [2] Geely Automobile - Geely's performance in 2025 was strong, with record sales, revenue, and core profits. The gross margin continued to improve in Q4 2025, reflecting the benefits of high-end product offerings and scale effects. The outlook for 2026 is positive, driven by a new product cycle, accelerated international expansion, and integration synergies [3] - The target price for Geely is set at HKD 24.21, indicating a potential upside of 33.4% from the closing price of HKD 18.15 [3] Major Indices - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,501, down 1.63% for the day and down 2.38% year-to-date. Other major indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, also experienced declines [4] - Brent crude oil prices reached 107.29, reflecting a significant increase of 76.35% year-to-date, indicating strong upward pressure on energy prices [4] Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data releases include the U.S. Producer Price Index for February, expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.50%, and initial jobless claims, with a forecast of 213,000 [6]