镍：宏观风险偏好施压，矿端矛盾限制下方弹性；不锈钢：基本面与宏观施压，现实成本支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel is under pressure from macro - risk preference, and contradictions at the mine end limit the downside elasticity; stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment, with real - world cost providing support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 131,550, down 3,650 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract is 13,855, down 165 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 398,352, with a change of 137,766 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract is 199,960, with a change of 73,534 from T - 1 [1] - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 131,450, down 3,250 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,087, down 6 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, down 150 from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron & Steel/Zhangpu is 14,950, unchanged from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, starting to treat cobalt, a by - product of nickel, as an independent commodity and levy royalties [1] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities. The CGN mine is expected to restart between April and May 2026, in line with the restart of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [2] - The ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB) on February 10, with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit an RKAB reflecting an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction from 2025 [4][6] - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [5] - On February 18, a landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply on February 17, suspending mining operations next week and putting the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [5] - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they were fined according to the regulations [6] - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel ice [6] - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]