甲醇：偏强震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a bullish and volatile trend [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, methanol prices are expected to be bullish. From a fundamental perspective, the domestic methanol market is moderately bullish. With the decreasing expectation of imported methanol from Iran and the increasing valuation premium caused by geopolitical factors, methanol is still driven by supply disruptions, and its single - sided price is expected to be bullish. The upper limit of methanol's valuation is affected by geopolitical factors, and the negative feedback pricing of MTO is weakened, while the lower limit can refer to the break - even line of static MTO profit [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of methanol's main contract was 3,182 yuan/ton (up 270 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 3,175 yuan/ton (up 246 yuan), the trading volume was 3,080,667 lots (up 398,551 lots), the open interest of the 05 contract was 630,637 lots (up 18,908 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 8,709 tons (down 2,408 tons), the trading volume was 9,780,619 ten - thousand yuan (up 1,925,413 ten - thousand yuan), the basis was - 37 (down 50), and the spread between MA05 and MA09 was 247 (up 54) [2] - In the spot market, the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,255 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), the price in northern Shaanxi was 2,330 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan), and the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2,550 yuan/ton [2] Spot News - In this period, the port methanol market rose significantly. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,790 to 3,180 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,800 to 3,200 yuan/ton. Although downstream demand was weak and some warehouse pick - up volumes decreased, the low arrival of foreign vessels and ship shipments from mainstream warehouses led to a decrease in port inventory, supporting the coastal market. Unstable international situations and limited international shipping capacity led to a poor import outlook, strongly boosting the domestic methanol market [4] - In the same period, the inland methanol price also rose significantly. The price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranged from 2,160 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying downstream ranged from 2,505 to 2,555 yuan/ton. The inland market was supported by centralized procurement from some olefin plants and market sentiment, but downstream follow - up was weak due to high prices, so the increase was less than that in the port market [4] - As of March 18, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 126.17 million tons, a decrease of 5.11 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 3.89%) from the previous period. The port inventory continued to decline. In this cycle, 13.1 million tons of foreign vessels were unloaded, all in East China. In Jiangsu, domestic supplies were replenished, and inventory decreased due to stable pick - up supported by ship shipments and re - exports. In Zhejiang, inventory slightly increased due to stable demand and foreign vessel unloading. In South China, inventory in Guangdong and Fujian continued to decline [4][5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer between - 2 and 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]