棕榈油：高位易有恐慌，防范回调风险；豆油：豆系驱动有限，关注中美磋商进程

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is prone to panic at high levels, and investors should guard against callback risks [1] - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of China-US consultations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,796 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.07% increase and 9,738 yuan/ton at night with a -0.59% decrease; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,616 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.89% increase and 8,584 yuan/ton at night with a -0.37% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,854 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.76% increase and 9,865 yuan/ton at night with a 0.11% increase; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,612 ringgit/ton with a 1.77% increase; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.23 cents/pound with a -0.46% decrease [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 491,200 lots with a decrease of 90,211 lots and an open interest of 331,096 lots with a decrease of 1,763 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 251,021 lots with a decrease of 29,647 lots and an open interest of 594,494 lots with an increase of 9,710 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 192,755 lots with a decrease of 5,077 lots and an open interest of 234,514 lots with an increase of 5,030 lots [2] - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,870 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan increase; first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,990 yuan/ton with a 40 yuan increase; fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,230 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,200 US dollars/ton with a 10 US dollars decrease [2] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 74 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 374 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 376 yuan/ton [2] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 58 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was -1,180 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 146 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared to the same period last month [3] - SPPOMA data showed that from March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [4][5] - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate; Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons; Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [5] - Abiove expects Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons; Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 177.85 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons [5] - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production in the 2026/27 season is expected to increase by 16 million tons year - on - year to 442 million tons, the trade volume to increase by 3 million tons to 190 million tons, the consumption to increase by 12 million tons to 442 million tons, and the ending stocks to increase by 1 million tons to 79 million tons [5] - A farmer survey by Allendale Inc showed that US farmers plan to reduce the corn planting area by 5.2% year - on - year in 2026 and expand the soybean planting area by 5.5% [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is -1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is -1 [7]