国泰海通晨报-20260320

Macro Research - The report indicates that tariffs and geopolitical risks continue to disrupt US inflation expectations, with the Federal Reserve's short-term concerns about inflation outweighing worries about stagnation, leading to suppressed rate cut expectations and increased volatility in US stocks and bonds [2][4] - It is anticipated that the rate cut expectations may rise again in the second half of the year, contingent on the stabilization of tariffs and geopolitical risks, as well as the weakening job market [4][5] Overseas Technology Research - Google - Google's search advertising remains strong, with AI enhancing advertising space; the Gemini 3 series is currently leading the market, and the Flash model aids in price competition for consumer-facing products [2][7] - Revenue forecasts for FY2026E-FY2028E have been adjusted to $464.2 billion, $526.6 billion, and $587.4 billion respectively, with GAAP net profits projected at $146.4 billion, $172.2 billion, and $194.0 billion [7] - The report assigns a target price of $383 based on a 32X PE valuation for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] Real Estate Research - Beike-W - Beike is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns [2][9] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are estimated at 5.216 billion, 5.735 billion, and 7.423 billion yuan, with a corresponding reasonable value of 54.08 yuan per share [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of the 3P model in Beike's business, with its share of net income increasing from 11.3% in 2021 to 20.0% in 2025 [10]