招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold prices (London gold) fell by - 3.39% to $4650.503 per ounce; domestic gold (9999 on the Gold Exchange) fell by - 3.58% to 1061, and the Shanghai Gold main contract fell by - 3.32% to 1062 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell by 3.56% to $72.778 per ounce [1] - Fundamentals: Global central banks' hawkish stances due to inflation pressure from the Middle - East conflict, US approval of Russian oil sales, and Trump's call for Powell to cut interest rates. There were small outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in various gold and silver inventories [1] - Trading Strategy: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; partially close out short positions in silver [1] Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 24180 yuan per ton, down - 2.50% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 105 yuan per ton, and the LME price at 3340 dollars per ton [2] - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product operating rate [2] - Trading Strategy: Expect aluminum prices to fluctuate weakly, and suggest waiting and seeing [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The main alumina contract closed at 3027 yuan per ton, down - 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 344 yuan per ton [2] - Fundamentals: Stable increase in alumina operating capacity and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [2] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to Guinea's bauxite policy [2] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8285 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan or - 1.07% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 6591 lots to 253549 lots (+2.67%), a decrease in trading volume by 33633 lots to 172736 lots (-16.30%), an increase in funds in the variety by 0.78 billion to 31.95 billion, and 21669 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [2][3] - Fundamentals: Increase in the number of furnaces in operation, expected increase in production in Sichuan due to lower electricity prices, slight inventory reduction, and expected increase in monthly production of polysilicon, stable production in the organic silicon industry, and rising aluminum alloy prices and operating rate [3] - Trading Strategy: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 142,600 yuan per ton, down 7520 yuan or - 5.0% [3] - Fundamentals: Decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, increase in weekly production of lithium carbonate, expected increase in March production, increase in production of downstream materials, and changes in inventory [3] - Trading Strategy: The market expects faster domestic lithium resource approval, but the price is expected to be under pressure [3] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 38550 yuan per ton, down 1555 yuan or - 3.88% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest by 1612 lots to 32966 lots (-4.66%), an increase in trading volume by 4804 lots to 13502 lots (+55.23%), a decrease in funds in the variety by 2.26 billion to 17.99 billion, and 9910 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [3] - Fundamentals: Slight increase in production and inventory, and changes in downstream product prices and production schedules [3] - Trading Strategy: The spot price has dropped, and the market will test the production cost pressure level of leading factories [3] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3133 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - Fundamentals: Increase in apparent demand and production, weak supply - demand in the short term, low profit for steel mills, and limited production increase space [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 814.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - Fundamentals: Increase in pig iron production, decrease in inventory, neutral - weak supply - demand, and high inventory days [4][5] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1161 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5] - Fundamentals: Increase in pig iron production, the first round of coke price cut, high inventory in some links, and high futures valuation [5] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1200 [5] Agricultural Products Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [6] - Fundamentals: Over 70% of grain sales completed, low inventory at ports and downstream, weakening spot prices in production areas [6] - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5427 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment was 610 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: Expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, increase in Guangxi's sugar production estimate, and macro - funds' long - position allocation [6] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [6] Cotton - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated downwards [6] - Fundamentals: Decrease in US cotton export sales, decrease in unpriced selling orders, increase in the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises [6][7] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see, with a price range of 15000 - 15400 yuan per ton [7] Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices rose slightly [7] - Fundamentals: Rainy weather affected storage, high egg - laying hen inventory, and low - season demand [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices continued to fall, with the national average price below 10 yuan/kg [7] - Fundamentals: Increase in slaughter volume in March, high slaughter weight, and low - season demand [7] - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The low - price spot in North China was 8400 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [8] - Fundamentals: Decrease in domestic supply due to planned production cuts, and improvement in demand in the peak season [8] - Trading Strategy: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [8] PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 5862, up 0.4% [8] - Fundamentals: Price increase due to rising oil prices, high inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [8] Glass - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1065, down 1.3% [8] - Fundamentals: Decrease in supply, decrease in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8][9] - Trading Strategy: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9100 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9] - Fundamentals: Decrease in supply due to production cuts, and improvement in demand [9] - Trading Strategy: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium - long term [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose due to the US - Iran conflict, with a significant increase [9] - Fundamentals: The conflict affected multiple Gulf countries, with a large potential reduction in oil exports. There was a decrease in Iranian oil exports [9] - Trading Strategy: Oil prices may continue to rise if the conflict persists, but may reverse if the situation eases [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 10300 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9][10] - Fundamentals: Improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand pattern, slight reduction in styrene inventory, and improvement in downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term, and the supply - demand will weaken in the long term [10] Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1217, down 0.8% [10] - Fundamentals: Supply recovery, decrease in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]