贵金属数据日报-20260320

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, precious metal prices may still be under pressure due to geopolitical games in the Middle East and a significant retreat in the market's expectations of easing by major global central banks. Whether this trading situation can ease depends on the intensity and duration of the current Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. - In the long - term, the allocation value of gold remains. Against the backdrop of continuous global geopolitical uncertainties and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, global central banks and institutions may continue to buy gold, which is expected to support precious metal prices. After recent shocks, it is less likely for precious metal prices to continue to decline significantly, and investors can consider long - term long - position allocation opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - 15 - point price on March 19, 2026: London gold spot was $4765.37/ounce, London silver spot was $72.25/ounce, COMEX gold was $4767.50/ounce, COMEX silver was $74.70/ounce, AU2604 was 1062 yuan/gram, AG2604 was 18023 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1078.69 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18450 yuan/kilogram [4]. - Price changes from March 18 to March 19: London gold spot dropped 4.9%, London silver spot dropped 9.5%, COMEX gold dropped 4.9%, COMEX silver dropped 6.6%, AU2604 dropped 4.6%, AG2604 dropped 9.9%, AU (T + D) dropped 3.0%, and AG (T + D) dropped 7.5% [4]. - Spread/ratio tracking: On March 19, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 16.69 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was 427 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 21.92 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 306 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 58.92, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.82, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.26 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 30 yuan/kilogram [4]. Position Data - As of March 18, 2026: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1066.99 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15264.40028 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 215445 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 163132 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts [4]. - Changes from March 17 to March 18: Gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.24%, silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.81%, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 0.79%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 2.41%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 1.87%, non - commercial short positions decreased by 19.84%, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 5.31% [4]. Inventory Data - On March 19, 2026: SHFE gold inventory was 106845 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 364865 kilograms. On March 18, COMEX gold inventory was 32140344 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 335075635 troy ounces [4]. - Inventory changes: SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.30%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.83% [4]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 19, 2026: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90. On March 18, the US dollar index was 100.30, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.76%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.26%, VIX was 25.09, the S&P 500 was 6624.70, and NYMEX crude oil was $99.05 [4]. - Rate changes: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.10%, the US dollar index increased by 0.74%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 2.17%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.43%, VIX increased by 12.16%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.36%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 3.16% [4]. Market Analysis - Market review: On March 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 4.64% to 1062 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 10.35% to 17984 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Influence analysis: The mutual attacks on oil and gas infrastructure between Israel and Iran boosted oil prices, and the hawkish remarks of the Fed's Powell after the August interest - rate decision led to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The market once expected the Bank of England to raise interest rates three times this year due to the Middle East geopolitical situation. The hawkish stance of the Fed triggered a wave of interest - rate hike trading in the precious metal market, causing a liquidity shock and a sharp decline in precious metal prices. Subsequently, the market's liquidity risk eased, and the decline in precious metal prices narrowed [3].