黑色金属数据日报-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market has a large cooling of risks, and it is recommended to take profits on short - term long positions and focus on long - basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coils being the preferred choice [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets are in a range - bound state. The upside is limited by weak demand and increased supply, and the downside is supported by costs. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by geopolitical conflicts. The spot shows signs of strengthening, and the futures follow. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and consider establishing cash - futures positive arbitrage positions in batches [5]. - The iron ore market has uncertainties due to BHP's management change and supply - demand rumors. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On March 19, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc. and near - month contracts such as RB2605, JM2605, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The spot prices of Tianjin螺纹, Tangshan billets, etc. also decreased. The market risk has cooled, and the short - term is not recommended for excessive participation. The long positions recommended a few days ago can be taken profit. The cash - futures positions can focus on long - basis or cash - futures positive arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coils being the preferred choice [1][2]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the crude oil price has risen, but the impact on ferroalloys is mainly emotional. The power cost accounts for a high proportion, but the domestic power price is regulated. The cost of manganese ore has some support. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and the supply pressure is emerging. The futures are strong, but the spot lags, and the basis weakens. The market is in a range - bound state [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the auction sentiment is strong, and all are sold. The prices of some coking coals and cokes have changed. The Mongolian coal market has different trading situations. On the futures side, affected by the rise of crude oil, coal and coke are relatively strong. The market is mainly concerned about the situation in Iran, and the follow - up should focus on the change of geopolitical themes [5]. Iron Ore - There are rumors that BHP has changed its management, and the negotiation with Chinese mines is expected to progress. There are also rumors about the restriction of Newman powder procurement, which has caused fluctuations in the market. Considering the BHP management change, it is recommended to wait and see instead of chasing long or short [6].