冲高遇阻，玉米阶段调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is currently in a phased adjustment, but the price is expected to remain strong in the first half of the year due to decreasing grain sources and rigid demand. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods as needed and maintain sufficient inventory, while traders should buy low and sell high [3][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2605 contract has been under pressure and adjusted after reaching a nearly 2 - year high of 2443. The spot price is relatively stable, with the Pingcang price in Bayuquan dropping slightly from 2405 yuan/ton to around 2400 yuan/ton, and the arrival price at Shekou Port remaining around 2530 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened slightly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount. The starch main 2605 contract has also adjusted this week, with the starch price rising slightly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu Corn has increased from 3010 yuan/ton to around 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis has strengthened in a volatile manner [3] Supply - side Situation - As of March 19, the national grain sales progress was 78%, 6% slower than the same period last year. The remaining grain of farmers is gradually running out, and the grain sources are shifting to downstream players such as traders. However, the enthusiasm for central grain reserve public bidding has declined, with a cumulative release of 404,000 tons and a transaction volume of 354,000 tons as of March, with a transaction rate of 87.8%. In addition, the directional invitation auction of imported corn continues [3] Inventory Situation - As of March 13, the corn inventory in the northern ports was 2182,000 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the weekly shipping volume was 752,000 tons, a significant month - on - month increase. The domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 285,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the foreign trade corn inventory was 162,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. The corn inventories of downstream deep - processing and feed enterprises have stopped falling and rebounded. As of March 20, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 3,769,000 tons, a month - on - month increase, and the lowest in the same period in recent years. The corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.27 days, a month - on - month increase [4] Substitute and Import Situation - Although the wheat price has also risen, the corn price has risen more, and the wheat - corn price difference has further narrowed. If the narrowing increases, there may be substitution. Since last October, the import of corn in China has increased significantly, and it may continue to increase in the future to adjust the domestic corn supply and demand [4] External Market Situation - The US corn in the external market is oscillating strongly. The continuous rise of energy under the US - Iran conflict has boosted the ethanol price, and the demand may increase. However, the energy price increase has put pressure on many countries' economies, so beware of subsequent reversals. The planting area of new - season US corn may be reduced, and attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture's planting area intention report at the end of March [4] Demand - side Situation - Feed demand: Pig prices have fallen, and the breeding industry is in full - scale loss. The industry has adjusted the target inventory of breeding sows to 36.5 million heads. Although the current high inventory still supports feed demand, the long - term growth of feed demand may be affected due to the possible further reduction of production capacity. In the poultry industry, egg prices have fallen, and the breeding industry continues to lose money. The sales volume of chicken seedlings in February continued to increase, and the elimination of old chickens decreased. The inventory of laying hens in February may have increased [5] - Deep - processing demand: The demand of deep - processing enterprises has improved. Affected by the sharp rise in starch prices, the processing profit of starch processing enterprises has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased. As of March 20, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 58.8%, a month - on - month increase, and the starch inventory was 1,203,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease. Alcohol processing enterprises are still in a loss, with an operating rate of 58.77%, a month - on - month increase. The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises have increased [5] Market Outlook - The remaining domestic grain is close to 20%, and the supply in the Northeast is tight. The grain sources are shifting to the downstream, but there are supplements from public bidding and import auctions. The corn market is under phased pressure. However, as the grain sources gradually decrease and the demand is rigid, the price is expected to remain strong in the first half of the year [6]