华宝期货晨报铝锭-20260320

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the focus on macro policies and downstream demand [4] - Aluminum prices are expected to be under short - term pressure adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, including macro - expected changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [5] 3) Summarized by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production from mid - January and resume around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 74.1 million tons during the shutdown [3][4] - Six short - process steel mills in Anhui: one stopped on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and a few after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 1.62 million tons during the shutdown [4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 billion square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price focus is moving down, and winter storage has little price support [4] Aluminum Ingot - Newly invested electrolytic aluminum projects in China, Indonesia, and Angola are ramping up production, but geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East make the supply unstable, with a decrease in daily output expected [4] - Qatar Aluminum maintains a 60% operating rate, reducing 260,000 tons of production capacity; Bahrain Aluminum cuts 19% of its operating capacity, i.e., 310,000 tons; Mozambique Aluminum stopped production on March 15, involving 580,000 tons of capacity, with a total reduction of 1.15 million tons [4] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9%, with the peak season emerging and demand being released. The photovoltaic materials are in the final stage of "rush - to - export", and new orders in the automotive and power sectors have increased significantly [4] - On Thursday this week, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, a 45,000 - ton increase from last Thursday. The ingot - casting volume in March is expected to remain high, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue, with the post - holiday peak expected to reach 1.35 - 1.4 million tons [4] - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase price volatility. LME inventory decline supports LME aluminum, but it lacks upward momentum. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress upward momentum, and the internal and external drivers are different [5]