美联储加息预期抬头，地缘政治风险影响市场：股指早报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas data indicates a marginal decline in the US economy, and the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran has escalated, affecting asset prices. The market is still influenced by oil prices, and the probability of the Fed raising interest rates exceeds that of cutting rates, which is a turning point for market liquidity that needs to be continuously monitored [2]. - In the domestic A - share market, due to geopolitical risks and the upcoming earnings season, market risk appetite is cautious. The market fell on Thursday, and the Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below 4000 points, with continued competition expected around this level [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - The interest rate futures market prices the Fed's interest rate cut this year at only 5.5 basis points, and there are bets on interest rate hikes [5]. - Trump and Netanyahu stated that Israel will suspend attacks on Iran's main gas fields, while Iran's retaliatory actions against attacks on its energy infrastructure are not over [5]. - The US may lift sanctions on Iran's offshore oil in the next few days, release oil strategic reserves, and use Iranian oil to suppress prices. The US has no plan to restrict oil exports [5][6]. - Iran plans to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar's LNG facilities were attacked, resulting in a 17% loss of annual export volume [7][8]. - The US Defense Secretary confirmed a request for a $200 billion appropriation, and the US approved $16.5 billion in arms sales to three Middle - Eastern countries [8]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce will continue to play the role of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism to strengthen dialogue and communication. The central bank will firmly maintain the stable operation of financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange [9][10]. 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - Futures Market Performance: The prices of major stock index futures contracts generally declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index fell 1.61%, and its corresponding futures contracts also showed varying degrees of decline [12]. - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various stock index futures contracts changed. For instance, the trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 futures increased by 12,184 lots, and the open interest increased by 11,746 lots [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - Spot Market Performance: Most major stock indexes in the spot market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.11%. Among the industries, only coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and public utilities rose, while non - ferrous metals, steel, chemicals, and building materials led the decline [3][35]. - Market Style Impact: Different market styles have different impacts on major stock indexes. For example, the cyclical style has a relatively large negative impact on the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, with a daily contribution of - 0.85% [36][37]. - Valuation and Other Indicators: The report presents the valuation and historical quantile data of major indexes and industries, as well as data on market trading volume, turnover rate, and the number of rising and falling stocks [39][40][44]. 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report shows the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate level, reflecting the market's liquidity situation [48][49][50]