Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing US-Iran conflict may enter an irreversible escalation phase, strengthening the upward support for international oil prices. This underlying risk determines the hawkish stance of the Fed's March FOMC meeting, leading to a shift in the market's trading focus to inflation stickiness and policy tightening risks [2]. - In the short term, the upward rigidity of oil prices may continue, putting pressure on the earnings and valuations of US stocks. Gold is unlikely to have a trend - like market in the short term, and its safe - haven property needs a substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations. The yield of US Treasuries has limited room for further upward movement, and the US dollar still has safe - haven value in short - term risk events [2][3]. - The core variables in the subsequent market are the evolution rhythm of the Middle East conflict and the marginal changes in US inflation and employment data [3]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: The central bank is committed to maintaining the stability of financial markets. Fiscal revenue in the first two months of 2026 showed a slight increase, and the stamp duty on securities transactions increased significantly. Central banks around the world mostly maintained interest rates unchanged, with some releasing hawkish signals. The energy situation is tense, and the Iran situation has escalated [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: Most central banks maintained interest rates unchanged and released hawkish signals, causing the US dollar index to decline passively. China's economic fundamentals are steadily recovering, and policy support lays a foundation for the moderate appreciation of the RMB. Short - term strategies are provided for export and import enterprises [3][4]. - Stock Index: The Fed's interest rate decision and the situation in the Middle East have put pressure on A - shares. In the short term, the market may continue to adjust, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [4][6]. - Treasury Bonds: Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, the trading logic of the bond market has shifted from inflation concerns to risk aversion. With the easing of the situation, the risk - aversion sentiment may weaken, and the futures bonds are expected to decline [7]. - Container Shipping on the European Line: The market is in a state of intense game between geopolitical risks and off - season fundamentals. The futures price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9][10][11]. Commodities New Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell, and the spot market price of the lithium - battery industry chain weakened. Affected by the overall correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, lithium carbonate showed a downward trend [12]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The main contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The spot market of the industrial silicon and photovoltaic industries showed a weakening trend. Affected by the non - ferrous metal sector, they oscillated and declined [12][13]. Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum Industry Chain: The price of aluminum dropped due to concerns about inflation and the impact of the war situation. The fundamentals of alumina are mixed, and the casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum. All are expected to be in a state of shock and consolidation [16][17]. - Copper: The copper price dropped significantly due to multiple negative factors at the macro level and specific contradictions in the fundamentals. It is recommended to pay attention to the upper pressure when the price rebounds [17][18][20]. - Zinc: The zinc price was suppressed by macro factors during the day and rebounded at night. The supply side is under pressure, and the demand side is delayed. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short term [20]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel dropped during the day and recovered at night. The fundamentals are in a state of intense game, and the price trend needs to pay attention to multiple factors [21]. - Tin: The tin price is weak in the short term and is expected to move upward in the long term [22]. - Lead: The lead price is expected to oscillate and gradually bottom out [22]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - Oilseeds: The external market stopped falling, and the domestic market followed the rebound. The short - term price is supported by the slow shipment in Brazil, but the medium - term supply is still abundant. The rapeseed meal has regained cost - effectiveness [24]. - Oils: The oil market is in a state of shock, lacking new driving factors. The market is concerned about the development of the Iran situation and the change of crude oil prices [25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - SC: The oil price is affected by multiple factors, with short - term upward driving factors and high volatility. Risk management should be done [27][28]. - Fuel Oil: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is tightened, and the market structure is strong. The high - sulfur fuel oil is still at a high level. The overall pattern of Asian fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term [29]. - Asphalt: The price of asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is reduced, and the demand is weak. The price may fluctuate greatly, and investors should pay attention to position control [30]. Precious Metals - Platinum and Palladium: The prices of platinum and palladium continued to decline under pressure. The market is in a state of stagflation panic, and it is recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the medium - term [31][32]. - Gold and Silver: The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly. The market is concerned about the Middle East conflict, inflation, and the Fed's interest rate policy. It is also recommended to be strategically bullish on precious metals in the medium - term [32][33][34]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The spot price of pulp rebounded, and the port inventory decreased. The price of offset paper futures was driven by the cost of pulp. For pulp futures, it is recommended to shift from a high - short strategy to a light - long strategy; for offset paper, the range - shock strategy continues [36][37]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene follow the cost side. The market is concerned about the closure time of the Strait of Hormuz and the supply reduction. They are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [37][38][39]. - LPG: The price of LPG is affected by geopolitical risks, and the risk premium is rising. It is not recommended to short against the trend. Options strategies can be considered [41]. - Methanol: The price of methanol fluctuates greatly, mainly affected by the US - Iran situation. The MTO profit has expanded, and the 5 - 9 spread can be in a positive set [42][43]. - PP and Propylene: The prices of PP and propylene are expected to maintain a shock - strong trend. The supply of PP is supported, and the supply of propylene is expected to be tightened [45]. - Plastic: The price of plastic is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The supply is reduced, but the demand is suppressed. It is necessary to pay attention to the Middle East situation and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz [46][47]. - Rubber: The price of rubber is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. Synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range shock, and natural rubber is expected to gradually stabilize with macro - sentiment fluctuations [51][53][54]. - Urea: The US - Iran war has a significant impact on the urea market, which may drive up the price by international cost and domestic sentiment [55]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is under pressure, and the inventory is better than expected. The cold - repair expectation of glass continues, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [56][57]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices of coke and iron ore are supported by the Iran situation, which in turn supports the steel price. However, the high inventory of hot - rolled coils restricts the upward space of the price. The steel price may rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is strong in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [60]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply pressure is not large, and the demand is supported to a certain extent, but the upward space is limited [60][61]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Pig: The futures price of pigs continued to drop, and the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, but the demand was weak [63]. - Cotton: The issuance of cotton import quotas has a limited impact on the domestic market. The supply - demand situation is expected to be tight, and the cotton price has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the support at 15,000 [65][66]. - Sugar: The sugar price may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term due to the tense Middle East situation and cautious market sentiment [67]. - Egg: The egg market is in a game between sufficient supply and warming demand. The egg price may be weak and stable in the short term and show an upward trend in the long term [68][69]. - Apple: The apple futures are strongly supported by the shortage of delivery products, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern [76][77]. - Red Date: The red date market is in a state of oversupply, and the price may oscillate at a low level [77][78]. - Log: The inventory of logs has decreased, and the price has some support. The market is expected to return to neutral, and short - term interval trading and long - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [79][80].
金融期货早评-20260320
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2026-03-20 03:08