鲍威尔发言引发价格回调释放部分风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bullish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Powell's speech triggered market sentiment fluctuations, causing a rapid decline in aluminum prices. However, there is no need to worry about entering an interest - rate hike cycle. The price correction released the risk of the previous continuous rise and is beneficial for price transmission. Overseas, there are actual production cuts, and the situation is still favorable for aluminum prices. In China, the decline in the futures price has stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and an inflection point in aluminum ingot inventory is expected. In the long run, the price correction provides a good opportunity for buying hedging. For alumina, policy adjustments and oil - price fluctuations support the cost, and the center of alumina price may rise slightly [6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 19, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 24,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 190 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,410 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed by 30 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium was - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Aluminum Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,800 yuan/ton, closed at 24,180 yuan/ton, a change of - 655 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,880 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,080 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 460,368 lots, and the position was 292,404 lots [2] Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.339 million tons, a change of 13,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 393,226 tons, a change of 1,020 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a change of - 3,900 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On March 19, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,735 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,740 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,780 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 298 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,085 yuan/ton, closed at 3,027 yuan/ton, a change of - 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.24%, with a maximum price of 3,136 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 3,016 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 980,719 lots, and the position was 268,233 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 19, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum was 18,000 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 18,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 300 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 53,800 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 81,500 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,604 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 896 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: Powell's speech caused price fluctuations. Overseas, there are production cuts and supply concerns, and the overseas situation is favorable for aluminum prices. In China, the decline in the futures price stimulates downstream purchasing, and an inflection point in inventory is expected. In the long run, the price correction provides a buying opportunity [6] - Alumina: Guinea will cut bauxite exports in April. Policy adjustments and oil - price fluctuations support the cost. In China, the supply is still in surplus, but the cost increase and policy changes may slightly raise the price center [7][8]