宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年3月20日）-20260320

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the report's investment rating for the industry in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices have turned to wide - range fluctuations. The palm oil price will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and its trend will highly depend on the persistence of crude oil prices, the implementation of the US RVO policy, and the domestic inventory depletion rhythm. [5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend - Short - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bullish [5][6] - Reference view: Oscillatory and bullish [5][6] - Core Logic - The recent US soybean market has been oscillatory and bullish, driven by rising crude oil prices and geopolitical risks in the Middle East that have pushed up the prices of US agricultural products, but there are still concerns about fuel and fertilizer costs. [5] - In the domestic soybean market, the core game focuses on the near - month supply. Delayed arrival of imported soybeans and limited oil mill operations have led to low soybean meal inventories, strong price - holding intentions of oil mills, and firm spot prices supporting futures prices. [5] - Imports may tighten from March to April, downstream replenishment is active, and提货量 is high, increasing spot liquidity. [5] - The increase in soybean import costs and high spot basis have increased the terminal's purchasing willingness, but the accelerating decline in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm of farmers for feed input, which is unfavorable for the demand of protein meal. [5] 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend - Short - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Medium - term view: Oscillatory [6] - Intraday view: Oscillatory and bearish [6][7] - Reference view: Oscillatory and bearish [6][7] - Core Logic - In the first half of March, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 28.3% and production decreased by 5.28%, continuing the de - stocking process. The El Nino warning may increase the risk of drought - induced production cuts. The MPOC expects the short - term crude palm oil price to remain above 4,450 Malaysian ringgit, supported by energy prices and the palm oil - gasoline price difference, but uncertainties in the Middle East may delay purchases and limit price increases. [7] - The palm oil market is in a fierce game between strong expectations and weak reality. Fluctuations in international crude oil, origin policies, and biodiesel themes provide emotional and cost support, but the fundamentals of high domestic inventory and weak consumption continue to drag down the market. [7]