下游采购意愿有限，铅价维持低位震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lead market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and the main contract of SHFE lead is fluctuating weakly. On the supply side, the resumption of production of primary lead is advancing, the production of recycled lead is cut due to losses, and the arrival of imported lead at ports is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of batteries has rebounded, but the recovery of terminal consumption is weak, and social inventories have continued to accumulate to 76,500 tons. Short - term delivery pressure and import shocks suppress lead prices, but the cost support of recycled lead is gradually emerging. After the negative factors are exhausted, attention should be paid to the possibility of a stop - fall [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 19, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.86/ton. The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium of SMM Shanghai lead changed by -25 yuan/ton to -5.00 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Guangdong lead changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Henan lead changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -75 yuan/ton to 16,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste white shells changed by -100 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste black shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [1] Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,590 yuan/ton and closed at 16,415 yuan/ton, a change of -230 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 68,844 lots, a change of 14,483 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 84,931 lots, a change of 44,795 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,675 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,405 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,300 yuan/ton and closed at 16,435 yuan/ton, a 0.72% decrease compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On March 19, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 78,000 tons, a change of -400 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 19, the LME lead inventory was 284,250 tons, a change of -125 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Operations can be carried out by buying on dips and selling for hedging in the range from below 16,500 yuan/ton to close to 16,850 yuan/ton. However, if it is observed that the non - ferrous metal sector is collectively destocking in the near future, it is recommended to mainly buy for hedging on dips [3]