市场高位波动加剧，中东炼厂受袭持续积累

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the gradual accumulation of damage to Middle Eastern energy facilities. However, after the oil price has continuously risen to a high level, market volatility has further intensified, and any marginal news changes may cause significant price fluctuations, disturbing the trends of FU and LU [1]. - The potential risks in the fuel oil market are still huge. If the Strait is blocked for too long, the contradiction will be more prominent after the accumulated on - land and floating storage inventories of fuel oil are consumed. The number of attacked refineries in the Middle East is increasing, and the shutdown of Middle Eastern refineries is rising, making the refined oil contradiction more prominent. Even if the Strait is navigable, the supply of Middle Eastern fuel oil may not recover quickly in the short term. The potential incremental supply may come from Russia, whose refineries are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to late March, and there is room for an increase in the supply of refined oil including fuel oil. Although the direct export proportion of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is not high, the production of refineries in the Asia - Pacific region has declined passively due to insufficient raw materials, and the high premium in the diesel market has a boosting effect on the low - sulfur fuel oil market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - The night - session closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures dropped 3.28% to 4,806 yuan/ton, and that of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 3.46% to 5,886 yuan/ton. The market situation is still tense, and market fluctuations have intensified after the oil price has reached a high level [1]. Potential Risks and Incremental Supply - Potential risks in the fuel oil market are huge. If the Strait is blocked for a long time, the fuel oil inventory consumption will lead to more prominent contradictions. The number of attacked refineries in the Middle East is increasing, and the supply may not recover quickly even if the Strait is navigable. Russia's refineries are expected to resume operation in mid - to late March, and there is room for an increase in the supply of refined oil including fuel oil, which may hedge the supply gap to some extent, but the problem needs the Strait to resume navigation to be substantially alleviated. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the production in the Asia - Pacific region has declined due to raw material shortages, and the diesel premium has a boosting effect [2]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly, with large market fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly, with large market fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Cross - variety: No recommendation. - Cross - period: No recommendation. - Spot - futures: No recommendation. - Options: No recommendation [3]