地缘局势依然紧张，注意原油端高波动风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains tense, and there is a risk of high volatility in the crude oil market. Although the terminal consumption of asphalt is currently weak, there is seasonal recovery potential after the Spring Festival. The supply of refinery raw materials is tightening, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. There are still positive drivers for the asphalt fundamentals, but attention should be paid to the significant fluctuations in the unilateral price of the futures contract after the basis weakens. It is advisable to focus on the spread opportunities between different contract months [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 19, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2606 in the afternoon session was 4,625 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton or 4.52% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 260,425 lots, down 1,047 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 1,210,752 lots, down 78,148 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 4,386 - 4,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 4,200 - 4,250 yuan/ton in Shandong, 4,400 - 4,600 yuan/ton in South China, and 4,170 - 4,200 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in various domestic regions increased to varying degrees yesterday. The crude oil price once soared, driving up the BU futures contract. The sentiment in the asphalt spot market was strong, but the market sentiment may be repeatedly disturbed as the oil price fluctuates more violently at high levels [2] Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] - Inter - period: Look for opportunities to establish long positions in the near - term contract and short positions in the far - term contract (BU2605/2606) [3] - Inter - commodity: No strategy provided [3] - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [3] - Options: No strategy provided [3]