市场走势震荡，等待进一步现货价格指引

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is in a volatile state, waiting for further guidance from spot prices. The main contract EC2604 is approaching delivery, and Maersk has continued to raise the freight rate in the first week of April to boost the valuation of the 04 contract. After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies are trying to maintain prices during the off - season. The subsequent focus is on the actual demand in April under high - capacity conditions. For the relatively peak - season contracts of June, July, and August, the current expectations are strong, but the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [1][4][6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 18, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 47,542.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 37,755.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1915.00, 2168.00, 2386.20, 2530.00, 2366.00, 1712.00, 1561.60, and 1742.80 respectively [7] 3.2 Spot Prices - Online quotes: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK14 quote is 1630/2620; HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2035 - 2535 dollars/FEU, and for the first half of April, they range from 2835 - 3035 dollars/FEU. Other shipping companies also have different quotes for different time periods. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on March 13 was 1618 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2249 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3111 dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on March 16 was 1556.49 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1109.11 points [1][2][7] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes in the remaining months of 2026 and subsequent years are provided. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [2][3] - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 3 weeks of March is 308,200 TEU, and the capacities in WEEK12/13/14 are 310,600/282,100/331,800 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April is 326,200 TEU, and in May it is 311,800 TEU. There are a certain number of blank sailings and TBNs in March, April, and May [4] 3.4 Supply Chain - After the Israel - Iran conflict, shipping companies are trying to maintain prices during the off - season. The transfer of ships from the Middle East to the European line increases the supply - side pressure and may affect the European line freight rates. The Suez Canal's probability of reopening in the first half of the year is relatively low, and the resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met [4][5][6] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of the Asia - Europe route has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports due to concerns about future inflation, which may drive up China's export demand, and also beware of the expectation of a global economic recession caused by a large increase in oil prices [6] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: None - Arbitrage: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [8]