苹果优果驱动近月偏强，红枣淡季高库存承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both apples and red dates is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The current market is driven by low inventory and a shortage of high - quality supplies. The low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate in this fruit season have led to a structural contradiction of tight supply of good goods, pushing up the cost of warehouse receipts and strongly supporting the near - month contracts. The spot market shows a polarized pattern. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the willingness of merchants to restock has increased, and the weakening impact of substitute fruits has also boosted the market. In the short term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock [2] - Red dates: The futures price of red dates continued to oscillate weakly and was under pressure. The market focus has returned to the spot fundamentals. The consumption off - season is obvious, downstream sales are mediocre, and restocking is light. Although the new - season output has a slight reduction, the overall domestic supply is still abundant, and the de - stocking pressure of processing enterprises is difficult to relieve in the short term. The bearish factors are dull after the futures and spot prices enter the low - price zone, but the futures price rebound is likely to trigger hedging pressure [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2605 contract yesterday was 10,611 yuan/ton, a change of +490 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +4.84% - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day; the price of more than 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.25 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis of AP05 was - 2611 and - 2111 respectively, a change of - 490 from the previous day - Market conditions: The overall apple market is stable. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for high - quality goods has increased, and the price is stable. In the northwest, the trading is mainly for high - quality goods, concentrated in the Yan'an area of Shaanxi. The sales of general - quality fruit farmers' goods are slow. The export fruit trading has increased slightly, and the sales are okay. The prices of general - quality goods of fruit farmers are chaotic. The number of trucks arriving at the sales area is low, and the terminal sales are average [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose strongly yesterday, showing a strong performance. The core drivers are low inventory and a shortage of high - quality supplies. The national cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, and the high - quality fruit rate in this season is low. The structural contradiction of tight supply of good goods is prominent, pushing up the cost of warehouse receipts and strongly supporting the near - month contracts. The spot market shows a polarized pattern. With the approaching of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the willingness of merchants to restock has increased, and the weakening impact of substitute fruits has also boosted the market. In the short term, the futures price will maintain a high - level shock. In the future, attention should be paid to the sales rhythm in the sales area and the weather disturbance during the new - season flowering period [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2605 contract yesterday was 8,825 yuan/ton, a change of +30 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.34% - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 7.90 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis of CJ05 was - 925, a change of - 30 from the previous day - Market conditions: In the 2025 production season, the purchase price range of Xinjiang grey dates was 5.00 - 6.50 yuan/kg. After the Spring Festival, there were few merchants returning to Xinjiang for repurchase, and the inventory holders were highly motivated to sell. On March 18, the prices in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market and the Guangdong Ruyifang market were stable, with small arrivals and average transactions [4] Market Analysis - The red dates futures price continued to oscillate weakly and was under pressure. The market focus has returned to the spot fundamentals. The consumption off - season is obvious, downstream sales are mediocre, and restocking is light. Although the new - season output has a slight reduction, the overall domestic supply is still abundant, and the de - stocking pressure of processing enterprises is difficult to relieve in the short term. The bearish factors are dull after the futures and spot prices enter the low - price zone, but the futures price rebound is likely to trigger hedging pressure [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]