周度库存小幅去化，碳酸锂减仓下跌-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is still in a destocking pattern, but the destocking pace has slowed. The recent continuous decline in the futures price is due to lower - than - expected new energy vehicle demand and increased supply from Chilean imports. The market is affected by macro - disturbances and shows wide - range price fluctuations. However, the strong demand for energy storage and the trend of tight balance remain unchanged. Short - term operation within a range is recommended [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 148,000 yuan/ton and closed at 142,600 yuan/ton, with a - 6.37% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 288,571 lots, and the open interest was 282,745 lots, down from 307,422 lots the previous day. The current basis is 4,140 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 34,740 lots, a decrease of 1,029 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 147,000 - 158,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 144,000 - 155,000 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 3,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 55 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a decrease of 86 tons week - on - week. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,608 tons, an increase of 316 tons; the downstream inventory is 46,105 tons, an increase of 458 tons; other inventory is 36,160 tons, a decrease of 860 tons [1] Supply and Consumption - Supply: The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, a 3.24% week - on - week increase. In February 2026, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 83,090 tons, a 15.1% month - on - month decrease and a 29.7% year - on - year increase. The output from January to February increased by 43.0% year - on - year [2] - Consumption: Energy storage still has a good growth expectation, but the growth rate expectation of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down, leading to a weakening of the restocking willingness of cathode material factories and battery enterprises, shifting from "restocking at low prices" to "purchasing on demand" [2] Strategy - In the short term, due to lower - than - expected new energy vehicle demand, increased supply from Chilean imports, and frequent macro - disturbances, the lithium carbonate market is affected by emotions and shows wide - range price fluctuations. However, the strong demand for energy storage and the tight - balance trend remain unchanged. It is recommended to operate within a range. There are no specific strategies for single - side, inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]