油厂库存下降，豆粕偏强震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the粕类 market is cautiously bullish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, due to the slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the slower - than - expected arrival rhythm, concerns about short - term soybean supply, tightening supply, rising shipping costs, and increasing import soybean costs, the domestic粕类 prices are strongly supported [2] - For the corn market, feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The price of corn in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. The supply increase of alternative grains may impact corn prices [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the豆粕 2605 contract was 3042 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day; the closing price of the菜粕 2605 contract was 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the豆粕 spot price was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 328, down 6 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 258, down 6; in Guangdong, it was 3410 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 368, down 6. In Fujian, the菜粕 spot price was 2470 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of RM05 + 27, unchanged [1] - Market Forecast: S&P Global Energy predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would be 85 million acres, higher than the January forecast of 84.5 million acres and the 2025 sown area of 81.2 million acres [1][3] Market Analysis - The slow soybean harvest progress in South America, the slower - than - expected arrival rhythm, concerns about short - term soybean supply, tightening supply, rising shipping costs, and increasing import soybean costs provide strong support for domestic粕类 prices. Attention should be paid to port clearance efficiency, new - season US soybean planting progress, and the impact of macro - geopolitical events [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish [3] Corn Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2605 contract was 2384 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.08%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2605 contract was 2719 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 + 21, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CS05 + 181, up 102 [3] - Market News: S&P Global Energy predicted that the US soybean planting area in 2026 would be 85 million acres, higher than the January forecast of 84.5 million acres and the 2025 sown area of 81.2 million acres. China's corn and corn meal imports in January were 370,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 274.7%; in February, it was 170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.4% [1][3] Market Analysis - Feed enterprises have low acceptance of high - priced corn and mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The price of corn in northern ports is firm, while the purchasing mentality in southern sales areas is cautious. Alternative grains have diverted some demand. Attention should be paid to the auction transaction rate and price of alternative grains, as the increased supply of alternative grains may impact corn prices [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [5]