聚烯烃日报：中东能源设施遇袭，供应收缩预期加剧-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing tension in the Middle East has led to concerns about raw material supply, causing the expected supply of olefins to shrink further. The prices of crude oil and LPG have risen significantly, driving up the prices of chemical products [3]. - For PE, the supply is tightening due to increased maintenance or production cuts at upstream refineries and weak expected imports. However, the rising raw material costs have put pressure on downstream profits, leading to a negative feedback in demand and a significant decline in the basis of LL [3]. - For PP, the supply is supported by increased maintenance losses at upstream enterprises due to concerns about raw material supply. The high price of PP has squeezed downstream profits, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream buyers and a continued decline in the basis of PP. Attention should be paid to the inventory consumption under upstream production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract was 8,916 yuan/ton (+485), and that of the PP main contract was 9,158 yuan/ton (+530). The spot price of LL in North China was 8,450 yuan/ton (+150), and in East China was 8,600 yuan/ton (+200). The spot price of PP in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton (+400). The basis of LL in North China was -466 yuan/ton (-335), in East China was -316 yuan/ton (-285), and that of PP in East China was -208 yuan/ton (-130) [1]. - Upstream Supply: The operating rate of PE was 80.1% (-2.3%), and that of PP was 70.5% (+0.4%) [1]. - Production Profit: The oil - based production profit of PE was -1,279.0 yuan/ton (-215.0), that of PP was -1,369.0 yuan/ton (-215.0), and the PDH - based production profit of PP was -1,848.1 yuan/ton (-101.8) [1]. - Imports and Exports: The import profit of LL was -975.1 yuan/ton (-167.4), the import profit of PP was -1,321.4 yuan/ton (-16.8), and the export profit of PP was 200.2 US dollars/ton (+92.6) [1]. - Downstream Demand: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film was 35.4% (+8.6%), that of PE downstream packaging film was 45.6% (+2.2%), that of PP downstream plastic weaving was 40.3% (-0.3%), and that of PP downstream BOPP film was 62.0% (+0.6%) [2]. Market Analysis - The main driver of the rise in olefins is the intensification of the Middle East conflict, which has increased concerns about raw material supply and led to an expected contraction in the supply of olefins. The energy facilities in the Middle East have become targets of attacks, and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, causing a significant increase in the prices of crude oil and LPG, which in turn promotes the strength of chemical products [3]. - For PE, the supply is tightening, and the demand shows a negative feedback. The basis of LL has declined significantly [3]. - For PP, the supply is supported, and the demand is weak. The basis of PP has continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the inventory consumption under upstream production cuts [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP should be hedged by cautiously buying on dips [4]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided [4]. - Inter - variety: The spread between L05 and PP05 should be cautiously narrowed when it is high [4].