2026年1-2月财政数据解读：支出靠前发力

Revenue Insights - In January-February 2026, the general public budget revenue reached 4.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, below the target growth rate of 2.2%[3] - Central revenue decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while local revenue increased by 2.6%, exceeding the target growth rate[3] - Tax revenue grew by 0.1% year-on-year, and non-tax revenue increased by 3.4%, both turning positive compared to December 2025[3] Expenditure Insights - In January-February 2026, total fiscal expenditure was 4.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, slightly below the annual target growth rate of 4.4%[17] - Central and local expenditure growth rates were 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively, with public fiscal expenditure progress at 15.6%, higher than the previous year and the 5-year average of 14.8%[17] - Significant increases were noted in social security and employment expenditures, which rose by 16 percentage points[18] Fund Insights - Government fund revenue decreased by 16% year-on-year, significantly below the budget target of 0.6%, with land use rights revenue dropping by 25.2%[22] - Government fund expenditure grew by 16%, surpassing the target growth rate of 5.1%, primarily due to higher issuance of special bonds compared to the previous year[22] Market Outlook - Fiscal spending is expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on improving living standards and stabilizing revenue through price recovery[2] - The overall fiscal deficit rate is projected to decrease, but the effectiveness of policies may enhance demand further as PPI recovers[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical experience becoming less relevant[25][26]