新能源及有色金属日报：地缘冲突加剧，镍不锈钢震荡下行-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Macro and policy factors are the main drivers of nickel price trends. The nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices, while geopolitical conflicts push up the US dollar index and suppress nickel prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the future [4]. - The supply growth expectation of stainless steel is stronger than the demand side, but cost support still exists. Macro and policy impacts are the main drivers of stainless steel trends. In the short term, stainless steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillating state [6]. Group 3: Summary of Nickel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,940 yuan/ton and closed at 131,550 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.94% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 398,352 (+137,766) lots, and the open interest was 186,757 (-11,470) lots [1]. Trend Analysis - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to an expected future shortage of nickel ore supply, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, supply is increasing and inventories are piling up, while demand from stainless steel plants is stable and new - energy vehicle production and sales are in line with expectations but in a consumption off - season [1]. Macro and Nickel Ore Factors - The Fed's hawkish signal in the March interest - rate meeting strengthened the US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities including nickel. The intensification of the US - Iran conflict also suppressed commodity trends. In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine tender prices are rising, and in Indonesia, the RKAB quota approval is slow with strong premiums for domestic trade ore [2]. Spot Market - The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued to decline, and the spot premium was slightly adjusted up in the morning. Some downstream enterprises increased their purchasing willingness when the price fell below 130,000 yuan, but many still held a wait - and - see attitude. The supply pressure of refined nickel remained, and the inventory of LME nickel decreased [3]. Strategy - For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 4: Summary of Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On March 19, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,020 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 154,529 (+58,084) lots, and the open interest was 123,112 (-4,171) lots [5]. Trend Analysis - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly affected by nickel prices. In terms of fundamentals, the supply of stainless steel crude steel is expected to increase in March, and the consumption is slowly recovering, with expected further improvement in April, which provides bottom support for prices [5]. Spot Market - The confidence in the stainless steel spot market has weakened due to the decline in the futures market and the fall in high - nickel pig iron prices. The 304 stainless steel price was adjusted down, while the 201 stainless steel price rose due to the steel mill's price - support news [6]. Strategy - For stainless steel, the strategy is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6].