农产品日报：棉价震荡下跌，郑糖止跌反弹-20260320

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The supply - demand pattern of the global cotton market is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the cotton output increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the consumption increment brought by the expansion of downstream spindle capacity is obvious. The inventory at the end of the year may still be tight, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The international sugar price rebounded due to the rise in crude oil prices caused by the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to increase more than expected, and the industrial inventory is high [3] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. The domestic terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared with last year [6] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 60 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,554 yuan/ton, a change of - 178 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,722 yuan/ton, a change of - 175 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton data: From March 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton was 44,611 tons, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment of upland cotton was 62,120 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and an 8% increase from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing of Pima cotton this year was 1,769 tons, a 9% increase from last week and an 11% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The shipment of Pima cotton was 1,179 tons, a 71% decrease from last week and a 47% decrease from the average of the past four weeks. The net signing of next - year's upland cotton was 27,715 tons, and there was no signing of next - year's Pima cotton [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and declined. The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is beneficial to narrowing the domestic - foreign price difference. The global supply - demand pattern is generally loose this year, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The 26/27 season may tighten. In China, the cotton output increased significantly in the 25/26 season, the consumption increment is obvious, the inventory at the end of the year may be tight, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the domestic - foreign price difference. Focus on the reduction of the new - year planting area and possible reserve - releasing policies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,417 yuan/ton, a change of + 74 yuan/ton (+ 1.38%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,430 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,315 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton [2] - Indian sugar data: As of March 15, the sugar production in India's 2025/26 crushing season reached 2.6214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 249,000 tons (about 10.5%) [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price stopped falling and rebounded. The international sugar price rebounded due to the rise in crude oil prices. The global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan is expected to increase more than expected, and the industrial inventory is high [3] Strategy - Neutral. The recent rise is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and there is still upward pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,104 yuan/ton, a change of + 64 yuan/ton (+ 1.27%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,125 yuan/ton, a change of + 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 4,745 yuan/ton, a change of + 45 yuan/ton [5] - Market situation: The spot price of imported wood pulp stopped falling, and some pulp prices rose slightly. The market prices of imported broad - leaf pulp and other types were mostly stable [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price stopped falling and stabilized. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. The domestic terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared with last year [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals are generally weak, and the port inventory is still high. The pulp price may consolidate at a low level in the short term [7]