化工日报：伊朗天然气设施遭袭，EG大幅上涨-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of EG closed at 5,220 yuan/ton, up 371 yuan/ton or 7.65% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 5,154 yuan/ton, up 354 yuan/ton or 7.38%. The spot basis in East China was -71 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton month-on-month. The EG load continued to decline, and the port started to destock [1]. - On March 19, the main contract of MEG rose 6.97%, and olefin-based chemicals as a whole moved up due to the further tense situation in Iran. The attack on Iranian natural gas facilities and subsequent retaliatory strikes led to a sharp increase in the prices of crude oil and LPG, further boosting the strength of olefin-based chemicals. The restart of several Iranian EG plants is also uncertain [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$238/ton, down $6/ton month-on-month, while that of coal-based syngas EG was 138 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.011 million tons, down 57,000 tons month-on-month. The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are expected to keep the inventory stable with a slight increase [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, and imports are expected to further shrink under the influence of the Iranian situation. On the demand side, the polyester and weaving loads are recovering, but the downstream prices are showing signs of weakness, and the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the downstream if the cost remains high [2]. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy on dips for hedging. The fundamentals are improving marginally under high inventory, and destocking is expected to increase in April. Short-term attention should be paid to the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and changes in ethylene glycol plants [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The main contract of EG closed at 5,220 yuan/ton, up 371 yuan/ton or 7.65% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 5,154 yuan/ton, up 354 yuan/ton or 7.38%. The spot basis in East China was -71 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$238/ton, down $6/ton month-on-month, while that of coal-based syngas EG was 138 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis provided Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester and weaving loads are recovering, but the downstream prices are showing signs of weakness, and the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has begun to accumulate [2]. Inventory Data - The inventory at the main ports in East China was 1.011 million tons, down 57,000 tons month-on-month. The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are 139,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports are 18,000 tons, so the inventory is expected to remain stable with a slight increase [2].