格林大华期货早盘提示：白糖、红枣、橡胶系-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the sugar market, the external market shows a strong trend due to geopolitical conflicts affecting oil prices and the shift of market focus to Brazil. The domestic market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation, with a neutral - to - bearish supply - demand structure, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber is under pressure from the start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos, with a neutral - to - bearish fundamental situation. Synthetic rubber is affected by the supply and demand of raw materials and the overseas situation, and its price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market 3.1. Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5417 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.38%, and the night - session closed at 5427 yuan/ton; SR609 contract closed at 5440 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.30%, and the night - session closed at 5460 yuan/ton [1]. - The main ICE raw sugar contract was at 15.42 cents/pound with a daily increase of 4.05% [1]. 3.2. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5394 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5400 - 5490 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5280 - 5320 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5680 - 5890 yuan/ton, with some prices up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - As of the 18th, the number of sugar mills that had completed the crushing in the 2025/26 season in Guangxi was 17, 50 less than the same period last year. The daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of the crushed sugar mills was 16.35 million tons, 38.5 million tons less than the same period last year [1]. - As of March 19th, 10 sugar mills in the Zhanjiang area of Guangdong had completed the crushing, and 7 were still in production, about 4 more than the same period last year, and the overall crushing progress was slower than the previous season [1]. - In January - February 2026, China's imported sugar was 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, an increase of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons year - on - year. From January to February 2026, China's cumulative imported sugar was 520,000 tons, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year. As of the end of February in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative imported sugar was 2.2826 million tons, an increase of 741,700 tons year - on - year [1]. - The white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 16,342, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. 3.3. Market Logic - External market: The sharp rise of ICE raw sugar is due to the high oil price caused by geopolitical conflicts, which affects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season. As the main sugar - producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere enter the end of the sugar - making season, the market focus turns to Brazil in the Southern Hemisphere, and there are still short - term macro and event disturbances, with a strong technical trend [1]. - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated and rebounded, with effective support from MA20. The domestic fundamental information is limited, and the supply - demand structure is neutral - to - bearish. The strong performance of raw sugar and energy issues are the trading hotspots affecting the expected sugar supply. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is in a long - short game between weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see or conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the activity range of 5350 - 5480 for the main contract [1]. Rubber Market 3.1. Market Quotes - The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,090 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.89%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.37%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 15,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.83% [5]. 3.2. Important Information - The price of Thai RSS3 was 73.89 Thai baht/kg, down 1.31 Thai baht/kg; the price of field latex was 74 Thai baht/kg, up 0.50 Thai baht/kg; the price of cup lump was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht/kg [5]. - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory was 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decrease of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.22 percentage points [5]. - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex was 16,440 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan or 2.55%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,998 US dollars/ton, down 44 US dollars or 2.15%; the weekly average price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 15,450 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 2.22% [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, an increase of 0.59 percentage points month - on - month and 0.05 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points month - on - month and 3.31 percentage points year - on - year [5]. - In February 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber export volume was 76,200 tons, a decrease of 128,800 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 62.83% and a year - on - year decrease of 34.01%. From January to February, Vietnam's cumulative natural rubber export was 281,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 75.02% [5]. - As of March 19, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 15,800 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 15,800 - 15,900 yuan/ton [5]. - As of March 19, the delivered price in the central Shandong area was 14,900 - 15,100 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangsu was 15,300 - 15,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The price of natural rubber continued to decline and fluctuated at night. The start of tapping in Yunnan and Laos suppressed the rubber price. The downstream tire factory's operation was stable, and the geopolitical impact was relatively limited. In the short term, the fundamental situation of natural rubber was neutral - to - bearish, and the technical trend was significantly weak. Pay attention to whether the lower integer - point support is effective [5]. - Synthetic rubber: Recently, BR has been consolidating at a high level. The reduction in butadiene supply supports its price, but the downstream's actual acceptance willingness is limited, and the news of enterprise production cut is frequent, and the poor trading suppresses the butadiene price. Affected by the high raw material price, the production loss of butadiene rubber continues, and the unplanned shutdown increases. In the short term, due to the overseas situation, merchants still have a mentality of hoarding and bullishness. However, the unpredictability of the war may make its trend more volatile, and high - level wide - range fluctuations may be the norm in the near future [5]. 3.4. Trading Strategy - Wait and see for RU and NR; for BR, it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money put options for hedging [5].