国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260320

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Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is at a high level, prone to panic, and investors should guard against the risk of a pullback [3][5]. - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US consultations [3][5]. - Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate [3][12]. - The spot prices in the soybean - producing areas are adjusted following the futures prices, and the futures market may fluctuate [3][12]. - Corn will run in a volatile manner [3][15]. - Raw sugar is gaining strength, and sugar will be volatile and bullish [3][19]. - Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the external market for cotton [3][23]. - Eggs will be in a weak and volatile state [3][28]. - The spot price of live pigs has weakened again, and the driving force for weight reduction is approaching [3][31]. - Attention should be paid to the macro - impact on peanuts [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 9,796 yuan/ton with a 1.07% increase, and the night - closing price was 9,738 yuan/ton with a - 0.59% decrease. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,616 yuan/ton with a 0.89% increase, and the night - closing price was 8,584 yuan/ton with a - 0.37% decrease. Rapeseed oil's daily - closing price was 9,854 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, and the night - closing price was 9,865 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase [6]. - Macro and Industry News: From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period last month. From March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 51 million tons, Thailand's is expected to be 3.82 million tons, and Malaysia's is expected to be 19.6 million tons [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,796 yuan/ton during the day with a - 2.22% decrease and 4,780 yuan/ton at night with a - 1.08% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 3,042 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.33% decrease and 3,043 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.33% decrease. CBOT soybean 05 rose 0.41% to 1,168.5 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal 05 rose 3.48% to 332.9 dollars per short ton [12]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 19, 2026, CBOT soybeans closed higher for the third consecutive day. China rejected another batch of Brazilian soybean cargoes due to pests, which supported the US soybean market. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 177.85 million tons, an increase of 730,000 tons from the previous forecast. Argentina's soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 48.5 million tons [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of soybean meal and soybean are both 0 [14]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: The price of C2605 was 2,384 yuan/ton during the day with a 0.04% increase and 2,380 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.17% decrease. The price of C2607 was 2,390 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.04% decrease and 2,388 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.08% decrease [16]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of northern corn shipped in bulk to ports was 2,350 - 2,365 yuan/ton, and the price of containerized first - class corn to ports was 2,400 - 2,420 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of corn in Northeast China increased by 20 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price in North China fluctuated [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [17]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 15.37 cents per pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,430 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,417 yuan/ton [19]. - Macro and Industry News: High - frequency information shows that due to the rise in crude oil prices, sugar, which is linked to crude oil through ethanol, has attracted continuous attention from funds. As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December 2025, an increase of 190,000 tons [19]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of sugar is 1 [21]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2605 closed at 15,150 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.39% decrease and 15,055 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.63% decrease. CY2605 closed at 21,285 yuan/ton during the day with a - 0.07% decrease and 21,390 yuan/ton at night with a 0.49% increase [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The spot trading of cotton was weak, and textile enterprises were worried about the continued decline of cotton prices, with low purchasing willingness. ICE cotton futures fell 1.44% due to weak weekly export sales data. As of March 12, 2026, the net increase in US cotton exports for the current market year was 196,700 bales, a 22% decrease from the previous week and a 30% decrease from the four - week average [24][25]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg 2604 closed at 3,279 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.34% increase, and Egg 2605 closed at 3,367 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.85% decrease [28]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of eggs is - 1 [29]. Live Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: The Henan spot price was 9,980 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 10,050 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton. The prices of live - pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 were 10,335 yuan/ton, 11,370 yuan/ton, and 12,500 yuan/ton respectively [32]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 2 [33]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: The price of PK604 was 8,080 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and the price of PK605 was 8,188 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% decrease [35]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the price of Nanyang Baisha peanuts was 3.8 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price of Kaifeng large peanuts was 3.4 - 4.1 yuan per catty. In Jilin, the price of 308 peanuts was about 4.6 yuan per catty. In Liaoning, the price of 308 peanuts was 4.5 - 4.6 yuan per catty. In Shandong, the supply from the grassroots level was limited, and the trading of finished products was average [36]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [37].