格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "High - level Volatility" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the significant escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. This week, the domestic methanol port inventory has decreased. It is expected that the import volume will be significantly reduced from March to April, and some downstream port olefin plants will resume operation. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, the methanol price will fluctuate at a high level [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped by 47 yuan to 3128 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China increased by 220 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long - positions increased by 20,172 lots to 429,000 lots, and short - positions increased by 34,020 lots to 430,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.8%, a 2.6% increase from the previous period. The overseas methanol operating rate is 47.1%, a 5% decrease from the previous period [2] Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 126.17 tons, a decrease of 5.11 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 2.76 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 2.35 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 48.54 tons, a decrease of 3.77 tons from the previous period, a 7.2% decrease from the previous period [2] Demand - The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 5.54 tons, a decrease of 0.53 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.53 tons, a decrease of 2.98 tons from the previous period, a 10.1% decrease from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 85.5%, a 3% increase from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 82.5%, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, unchanged from the previous period; the formaldehyde operating rate is 69.5%, a 0.5% increase from the previous period; the MTBE operating rate is 42.4%, a 4.8% increase from the previous period [2] Import - In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a 24.56% increase from the previous period, and the import average price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a 7.23% decrease from the previous period. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 60.44 tons, with an import average price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 1440.54 tons, a 6.75% increase from the previous year [2] International Oil Price - The Middle - East conflict continues, but Israel says it will suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities, and market concerns have eased. International oil prices show mixed trends. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract dropped 0.18 US dollars/barrel to 96.14, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract increased by 1.27 US dollars/barrel to 108.65, a 1.18% increase from the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures 2605 contract increased by 52.2 to 803.4 yuan/barrel, and dropped 46.3 to 757.1 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The significant escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation has led to high - level and volatile international crude oil prices. This week, the domestic methanol port inventory has decreased. It is expected that the import volume will be significantly reduced from March to April, and some downstream port olefin plants will resume operation. With supply decreasing and demand increasing, the methanol price will fluctuate at a high level [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold and wait for the low - position long orders [2]