光大期货金融期货日报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market showed an overall volatile adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark during the session. Nearly 5000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined, and the trading volume on the day was 2.13 trillion yuan. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.11% [1]. - Due to the potential for the US-Iran conflict to last longer than expected, Middle Eastern oil has entered a state of passive production cuts due to limited storage capacity, coupled with rising shipping costs, leading to a significant increase in the oil price center. The imbalance between supply and demand in the commodity market may lead to a tightening of the US dollar money supply, an increase in the US dollar index, a decline in most currency exchange rates, and a general rise in bond market yields [1]. - The US non-farm payrolls data for February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 55,000, and the non-farm payrolls data for the previous few months was also significantly revised downward, leading to a significant increase in market concerns about the US entering stagflation, which has significantly impacted the valuations of global technology stocks [1]. - The release of the article "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" has triggered market concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The software, services, finance, and other sub - sectors involved in the article are the areas where the Chinese and US stock markets have declined recently, and the market reaction has been intense. This topic may continue to ferment and amplify market volatility before the policy side clearly shifts to focus on social fairness after AI implementation [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. The People's Bank of China conducted 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 19, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, the same as the previous rate. According to qeubee statistics, there were 24.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases due in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 11.5 billion yuan [1]. - The current environment of precise liquidity adjustment, improving fundamentals, and rising inflation is generally negative for the bond market. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in the oil price center, accelerating the expected pace of improvement in domestic inflation data. In the short term, it will mainly be in a volatile adjustment state, with long - term interest rates under more pressure, while short - term rates are relatively stable supported by the capital side [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market was volatile and adjusted, with most stocks falling. The decline was affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US non - farm payrolls data, and concerns about AI squeezing out traditional economies. The market outlook is volatile [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures closed with gains. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the capital side showed certain changes. The bond market is expected to be in a volatile adjustment state in the short term, with long - term interest rates under more pressure [1][2]. Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On March 19, 2026, compared with March 18, 2026, IH fell 2.19% (from 2,958.6 to 2,893.8), IF fell 3.21% (from 4,651.4 to 4,502.2), IC fell 5.13% (from 8,086.0 to 7,671.0), and IM fell 1.94% (from 8,080.4 to 7,923.8) [3]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.53% (from 2,961.4 to 2,916.2), the CSI 300 Index fell 1.61% (from 4,658.3 to 4,583.3), the CSI 500 Index fell 2.71% (from 8,096.4 to 7,877.1), and the CSI 1000 Index fell 2.31% (from 8,096.6 to 7,909.2) [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS rose 0.03% (from 102.50 to 102.53), TF rose 0.06% (from 106.00 to 106.06), T rose 0.06% (from 108.27 to 108.33), and TL rose 0.08% (from 110.98 to 111.07) [3]. Market News - The Iranian Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larry Janani, was killed in an Israeli attack. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that China is shocked by this and has always opposed the use of force in international relations, and the killing of Iranian national leaders and attacks on civilian targets are unacceptable [5]. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of various stock index futures [7][8][9][10][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: There are charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][15][16][18][19]. - Exchange Rates: Charts present the trends of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between other major currencies [21][22][23][25][26].