GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-20 05:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [2][3] Core Insights - The company reported a 8.8% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, while the dividend per share increased by 10% year-on-year. The New Business Value (NBV) grew by 15% year-on-year. A new share buyback plan of $1.7 billion is set for 2026, indicating continuous improvement in shareholder returns [3][9] - The NBV growth was driven by a multi-channel strategy, with a 15% increase in NBV (fixed exchange rate) and a 17.1% increase (actual exchange rate) for 2025. The annualized new business growth was 9% (fixed exchange rate) and 10.2% (actual exchange rate) [9][10] - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from $19.31 billion in 2024 to $33.77 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.1% from 2027 to 2028 [5][10] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of $21.62 billion, a 11.9% increase from the previous year. The gross profit was $6.92 billion, and the net profit was $6.23 billion, reflecting an 8.8% decrease year-on-year [5][10] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 17.80 in 2025 to 11.31 by 2028, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][10] - The book value per share (PB) is expected to decline from 2.57 in 2025 to 2.24 by 2028, suggesting a potential increase in shareholder value [5][10] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return $4.34 billion to shareholders in 2025, with $2.60 billion through dividends and $1.74 billion through share buybacks. This reflects a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [9][10] - The operating profit per share for 2025 is projected at $0.6765, a 12% increase year-on-year, driven by robust new business growth and improved claims experience [9][10]