农产品日报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillation [1] - Soybean Meal: Up [1] - Oils and Fats: Up [1] - Eggs: Oscillation [2] - Pigs: Oscillation with a downward bias [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to ferment, with the rise in crude oil prices providing bullish support to the commodity market. The macro - bullish factors and the large supply of wheat in the fundamental situation create a mixed situation, causing the corn futures price to oscillate. The supply - demand fundamentals of the corn market have no significant changes, and attention should be paid to the subsequent policy - grain auctions [1]. - The CBOT soybeans closed higher on Thursday, supported by the strengthening of crude oil prices and the impact on fertilizer supply. The domestic protein meal oscillates. The decline in pig prices and the increase in losses reduce the enthusiasm for feed input, which is not conducive to the demand outlook of protein meal. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - The BMD palm oil rose on Thursday, ending a two - day decline. The domestic oils and fats oscillate, with palm oil performing weaker than soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The spot market is sluggish, and high prices suppress demand. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to reduce long positions [1][2]. - The egg futures price declined on Thursday. The short - term egg prices in the production areas may be mostly stable with a slight increase. Feed raw materials strengthen, providing some support to the egg spot price. Attention should be paid to the supply - side data and the impact of surrounding commodity prices on egg prices [2]. - The pig futures price continued to decline on Thursday. The demand support is insufficient, and most farmers have a strong willingness to sell. The pig price is in a weak pattern, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed costs and surrounding commodity prices on pig prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - The Israeli military action against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, with thousands of targets remaining to be attacked [3]. - The Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - In 2026, China will strengthen bottom - line thinking, closely monitor changes in the international financial market and internal and external environments, and strengthen the joint monitoring and supervision of domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets [3]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 17,187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons. The daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons. The number of ships at ports was 110, a decrease of 2 [3]. - The rebound in iron ore prices at the end of February was mainly due to sentiment and technical repair, lacking support from supply - demand fundamentals [3]. - The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - China will organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve (nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers) to meet the fertilizer demand during the spring plowing [4]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, energy prices such as oil and natural gas soared, and the international fertilizer supply chain was significantly impacted. The price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased by more than 20% compared to before the attack on February 28 [4]. - Iraq is ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, with a daily export volume of no more than 300,000 barrels. The Natural Resources Department of the Kurdish region refuses to resume oil exports [4]. - Due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain Aluminium has started a phased shutdown to reserve raw materials [4]. - As of March 12, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 54.80 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons compared to March 5 [4][5]. 3.2 Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific data analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][8][12][14][15][19][22][26] 3.3 Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. She led the team to win the title of the top ten research and investment teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures R & D team of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2013 and the top ten R & D teams in 2019, and the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in the top ten R & D teams of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in 2019 and won the special prize of the "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college students' practice competition in 2023 [29].