中辉农产品观点-20260320
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2026-03-20 05:10
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - General: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on their market conditions and influencing factors [1] - Soybean Meal: Be vigilant against the risk of weakening, with concerns about cost - pulling from the crude oil end and short - term import worries of Brazilian soybeans. Pay attention to the development of various factors in the future, as well as the US soybean planting area at the end of the month and the final content of US biodiesel [1][3][5] - Rapeseed Meal: Follow the trend of soybean meal. Downstream feed enterprises' purchasing rhythm has slowed down, and the national rapeseed meal inventory has increased. Focus on the inventory accumulation, crude oil trend, and soybean meal guidance [1][6][8] - Palm Oil: Short - term volatility intensifies. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month is good, beware of the risk of weakening fundamentals. Pay attention to the export situation in the first 20 days of this month, crude oil trend, and Indonesia's B50 policy [1][9][11] - Soybean Oil: Short - term volatility intensifies. Treat it as a short - term bullish and volatile market, but be cautious about chasing long positions due to the lack of continuous bullish drivers. Pay attention to the latest export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month, as well as the US soybean area at the end of the month and the content of US biodiesel [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term volatility intensifies. Low inventory and low import of rapeseed support the near - month rapeseed oil price to some extent. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to the potential weakening of crude oil. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end and the inventory accumulation after the arrival of Canadian rapeseed [1] - Cotton: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term, while the domestic cotton has support at the bottom but faces adjustment pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the support level of the previous low and the appropriate long - allocation opportunity after the macro - influence stabilizes [1][12][15] - Jujube: It is under pressure. Although the trading sentiment in the Zhengzhou jujube market is strengthened by external factors, the de - stocking progress is slow, and the rising temperature will further suppress jujube consumption. Be vigilant against the valuation retracement [1][16][17] - Live Pigs: It shows a weak shock. The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term disk is under pressure. Pay attention to the change of short - term second - fattening sentiment and the de - stocking strength of group farms. The near - month contract is expected to be under pressure, while the far - month 01 contract may have bottom - hunting opportunities [1][18][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - Market Data: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract daily closing) is 3042 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3424.57 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan or 0.32%. The soybean crushing profit has improved, and the basis of different contracts has increased [3] - Industry News: Last week (March 8 - 14), Brazil exported 3.011 million tons of soybeans, 377,388 tons of soybean meal, and 235,161 tons of corn. This week (March 15 - 21), it plans to export 4.325555 million tons of soybeans, 729,810 tons of soybean meal, and 180,852 tons of corn. As of March 11, the cumulative sales of Argentine soybeans in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons reached 51.7944 million tons [4] Rapeseed Meal - Market Data: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2703.16 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.75%. The rapeseed crushing profit has improved, and the basis of different contracts has changed [6] - Industry News: As of March 15, the EU's rapeseed imports in the 2025/26 season were 3.19 million tons, compared with 4.77 million tons last year. As of March 18, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.74 million tons compared with last week [8] Palm Oil - Market Data: The futures price of palm oil (main contract daily closing) is 9796 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.07% from the previous day. The national average price is 9748 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.31%. The import cost has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased [9] - Industry News: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the near - term. From March 1 - 15, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased compared with the same period last month. Saudi Arabia has achieved more than half of its exports through pipeline transportation, indicating a缓和 in the crude oil supply problem [11] Cotton - Market Data: The futures prices of different cotton contracts have declined slightly. The spot price of domestic cotton has decreased, and the basis of different contracts has decreased. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the operating rates of mainstream spinning enterprises and weaving factories have increased. The inventory of national and Xinjiang cotton has decreased [12] - Industry News: In the USDA's March supply - demand balance sheet, the global cotton production increased, consumption decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. In China, the production and consumption increased, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The 300,000 - ton additional trade quota has been implemented, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn in January - February has increased [13][14] Jujube - Market Data: The futures prices of different jujube contracts have increased slightly. The spot prices of different grades of jujubes are stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has decreased slightly [16] - Industry News: The downstream jujube market has little trading, and the overall spot price is stable. The market has entered the off - season, and the consumption demand is expected to weaken seasonally [17] Live Pigs - Market Data: The futures prices of different live pig contracts have declined. The national average slaughter price has decreased, and the basis of different contracts has changed. The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the slaughter volume has decreased. The operating rate of key slaughter enterprises has increased slightly, and the fresh - sales rate has decreased. The pork sales volume has decreased, and the slaughter and breeding profits are in a loss state [18] - Industry News: As of March 10, the overall completion rate of the planned slaughter of key provincial pig - raising enterprises is 33.00%. The second - fattening sentiment is not concentrated, and the number of piglets born in February has increased. The inventory of breeding sows has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season [19]