黑色商品日报-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market shows a narrow - range consolidation trend. The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar remain weak, with limited unilateral driving forces, and market sentiment is significantly affected by Middle - East geopolitical changes [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to continue a high - level oscillation trend, with supply and demand factors and geopolitical disturbances affecting the price [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate in the short term. The coking coal supply is sufficient, and the demand side is cautious; the coke supply and demand are both increasing [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to oscillate. The cost of manganese silicon has support, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited; the ferrosilicon has some demand support, but the upward driving force is limited due to geopolitical conflicts [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar futures price decreased slightly, the spot price also declined, and the trading volume remained low. The production increased, the inventory decreased, and the apparent demand rose. The supply - demand data is neutral to positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the short - term trend is narrow - range consolidation [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price decreased. The Australian shipment increased, the Brazilian shipment was stable, and the Chinese port arrivals decreased. The iron - making production increased, the port inventory decreased, and the steel - mill inventory increased. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price increased. The supply is sufficient, the downstream inquiry and trading improved, and the inventory pressure at the mine end eased. The demand side is cautious, and the short - term trend is oscillation [1]. Coke - The coke futures price decreased slightly. The cost support of coke enterprises is obvious, the production rate increased, and the demand from steel mills is rising. The short - term trend is oscillation [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation. The cost has support, the production rate is relatively stable, the demand from steel mills increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - term trend is oscillation, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation [1][3]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price declined slightly. The production increased slightly, the demand from steel mills increased, the cost is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The short - term trend is oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data such as rebar's on - paper profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various inter - commodity spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents historical price charts of main contracts of various black commodities, including rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [6][7][9][13]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the historical basis charts of main contracts of various black commodities [16][17][20][22]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides historical inter - period contract spread charts of various black commodities [25][26][28][32][33][35][37]. - 3.3.4 Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: It presents historical inter - commodity contract spread charts of various black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [38][40][41]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profits: The report shows historical profit charts of rebar, including on - paper profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][47]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [49][50].