有色商品日报-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, copper prices both in China and abroad first declined and then rose. The LME copper price dropped to a minimum of $11,754 per ton, and the import window for domestic refined copper opened. Geopolitical factors, especially the US - Iran conflict, and inflation uncertainty due to the Middle - East war are major concerns. The short - term support level for copper prices is in the range of RMB 90,000 - 100,000 per ton. If inventory accumulation weakens and the spot discount narrows, one can try to go long with a small position; otherwise, if the geopolitical conflict expands, continue to observe [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weakening trend. Guinea plans to tighten ore supply, and the blockage in the strait has led to the resale of overseas alumina raw materials. The LME is at risk of a short squeeze, resulting in a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. The domestic market may follow the upward trend as aluminum rods start to destock [1][2]. - Nickel: The LME nickel price fell by 0.55%, while the Shanghai nickel price rose by 0.95%. Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising shipping costs, the nickel ore price is strengthening. The demand for stainless steel is showing some changes, and the production of ternary materials is expected to increase. One can refer to the cost - line for short - term long opportunities, but also need to pay attention to overseas geopolitical and market sentiment, as well as the expected quota supplement in July and the high inventory pressure of primary nickel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: After the Fed's interest - rate meeting, central banks in Europe, the UK, and Japan kept their policies unchanged, expressing concerns about inflation uncertainty caused by the Middle - East war. Geopolitical focus is on the US - Iran conflict. In China, the central bank aims to maintain the stability of financial markets. LME copper inventory increased by 1,325 tons to 335,425 tons, Comex inventory increased by 115 tons to 534,159 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 12,244 tons to 306,380 tons, and BC copper decreased by 726 tons to 15,144 tons [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, AO2605 of alumina closed at RMB 3,008 per ton, a 2.21% decline, with a position reduction of 8,099 lots to 260,000 lots. AL2605 of Shanghai aluminum closed at RMB 23,930 per ton, a 2.53% decline, with a position reduction of 7,321 lots to 285,000 lots. The main contract AD2604 of aluminum alloy closed at RMB 22,750 per ton, a 2.34% decline, with a position reduction of 161 lots to 4,914 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded to RMB 2,736 per ton, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed to RMB 190 per ton [1]. - Nickel: The LME nickel price fell by 0.55% to $17,065 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel price rose by 0.95% to RMB 134,050 per ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 180 tons to 283,770 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 56,899 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at a discount of RMB 150 per ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On March 19, 2026, the price of flat - copper was RMB 95,605 per ton with a premium of - RMB 40, down RMB 3,375 from the previous day, and the premium increased by RMB 60. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was RMB 86,500 per ton, down RMB 3,200. The refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was RMB 3,115, down RMB 46. LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 334,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 12,244 tons to 306,380 tons, and the total inventory increased by 8,313 tons to 433,458 tons. COMEX inventory increased by 284 tons to 534,039 tons, and the social inventory of domestic + bonded area decreased by 0.8 million tons to 63.8 million tons [4]. - Aluminum: On March 19, 2026, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes were both RMB 24,490 per ton, down RMB 30. The spot premium was - RMB 190 per ton, up RMB 10. LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 436,625 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,020 tons to 393,226 tons, and the total inventory increased by 21,927 tons to 416,425 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.2 million tons to 132.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 4.0 million tons to 35.8 million tons [5]. - Nickel: On March 19, 2026, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was RMB 138,300 per ton, down RMB 3,050. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 283,950 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 295 tons to 56,899 tons, and the nickel inventory increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, and the social inventory of nickel increased by 2,953 tons to 87,490 tons [5]. - Zinc: On March 19, 2026, the main settlement price was RMB 22,925 per ton, down 2.2%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices were RMB 22,820 and RMB 22,750 per ton respectively, down RMB 380. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. The LME0 - 3 premium was $2.5 per ton, down $1.75. The weekly TC of Zn50% domestic remained at RMB 3,850 per metal ton, and the imported one remained at $240 per dry ton. The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged at 118,025 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.72 million tons to 22.9 million tons [7]. - Tin: On March 19, 2026, the main settlement price was RMB 354,000 per ton, down 4.4%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The SMM spot price was RMB 355,800 per ton, down RMB 13,700. The 60% and 40% tin - concentrate prices increased by RMB 9,800. The domestic spot premium average was RMB 2,400 per ton, down RMB 350. The LME0 - 3 premium was - $213 per ton, down $10. The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 851 tons to 12,514 tons, the LME inventory remained unchanged at 8,965 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][19][20]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [21][23][25]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [33][35][38]. - Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the "Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award" from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant awards in the industry and provides services such as market and policy interpretation and risk management for clients [46]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and provides in - depth reports and market interpretations [47].