晨报铁矿石：铁矿石：需求环比回升，矿价高位震荡-20260320

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Macro drivers remain weak, short - term iron ore supply - demand relationship improves marginally, geopolitical factors increase iron ore costs, but supply - demand changes and cost increases can't support rapid and significant price increases. Short - term iron ore prices are not determined by fundamentals, with over - heated market speculation. Later, beware of market sentiment decline and regulatory risks, especially trade negotiation progress. In the long run, trade restrictions won't change the loose supply - demand pattern, and the release of spot liquidity will put significant pressure on prices. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External ore supply has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Brazil's output hasn't fully recovered due to precipitation, and there are concerns about the impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors on Iran's global iron ore supply, along with transfer pressure from other countries. Domestic ore supply is expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, short - term supply - side pressure has decreased month - on - month. [3] Demand - Domestic demand is in a recovery cycle. After the lifting of environmental restrictions in Hebei, concentrated resumption of production has led to a significant increase in hot metal. Recently, the significant weakening of the basis has driven speculative demand. However, the probability of terminal demand growing beyond expectations is low. Later, attention should be paid to the de - stocking slope of steel inventories and the intensity of resumption of work. It is expected that domestic iron ore demand has some support but the possibility of exceeding expectations is low, and the upward drive on the demand side is neutral. [4] Inventory - The resumption of production at steel mills has driven restocking demand, and the inventory level at steel mills has increased month - on - month. Port inventories have decreased month - on - month, and short - term port inventory pressure has weakened. With the recovery of domestic demand and trade restrictions, the structural contradiction of domestic inventories still exists, and there is an expectation of inventory de - stocking. The upward drive on the inventory side is moderately strong. [4] Price - The expected price range is 104 - 109 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to Dalian iron ore futures at 790 - 825 yuan/ton. [5] Strategy - Adopt range - bound operation and sell call options. [5]