价格回落促进库存拐点来临

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - The decline in zinc prices has led to a potential inflection point in inventory. The fall in prices has spurred downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and with the recovery of downstream consumption, the social inventory inflection point may have emerged. The import ore TC is still slightly declining, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, with high smelting enthusiasm. The high energy cost overseas makes the probability of smelting复产 low, and the price decline provides a good opportunity for buy - hedging [1][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$41.47 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,850 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -70 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 380 yuan/ton to 22,810 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -95 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 19, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,150 yuan/ton and closed at 22,690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 740 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,726 lots, and the open interest was 57,712 lots. The highest price was 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,640 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 266,100 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 117,850 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Powell's speech caused market sentiment fluctuations, leading to a rapid decline in the SHFE zinc price, which stimulated downstream purchasing enthusiasm and the continuous repair of the spot discount. With the recovery of downstream consumption, the spot market trading activity increased, and the social inventory inflection point may have appeared. The import ore TC is still slightly declining, the import window is closed, and the domestic smelting profit is acceptable, so the smelting enthusiasm is high, and there is a high rigid demand for ore. There may be freight disturbances later, and the ore end supports the zinc price. Overseas, due to high energy costs, the probability of smelting复产 is still low even with rich by - product benefits. The price decline releases some risks of liquidity crisis or recession, providing a good buy - hedging opportunity [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]