商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260320

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts, silver has fallen from the oscillation platform, copper's price decline is limited by the reduction of domestic inventory, zinc's price stabilizes with fundamental support, lead's price decline is restricted by inventory reduction, tin recovers partially after a decline, aluminum experiences significant oscillations due to market panic, alumina is supported by cost, casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, platinum's sector is under significant pressure, a pessimistic view on palladium is maintained, nickel is pressured by macro - risk preference while the contradiction at the mine end limits the downward elasticity, and stainless steel is pressured by fundamentals and the macro - environment with real - cost support [2]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of gold and silver futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,062.00, with a daily decline of 4.63%; the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18,023, with a daily decline of 9.69%. The trading volume and positions of gold and silver futures have changed to varying degrees [4]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of gold and silver has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed. For example, the spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was 0.39, unchanged from the previous day, and the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 decreased by 10 [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The UK and European central banks kept interest rates unchanged and warned of inflation risks. The Japanese central bank also kept interest rates unchanged. Israel and the US tried to ease energy - market anxiety, and the US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf [4][6]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 94,420, with a daily decline of 4.25%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Copper and London Copper have increased [7]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 12,244 tons, and the inventory of London Copper increased by 1,325 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf. Zambia plans to triple its copper production by 2031. Rio Tinto suspended the operation of its Kennecott copper mine in the US. China's refined copper production from January to February increased by 9% year - on - year [7][9]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,705, with a daily decline of 2.66%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc have changed [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 1,341 tons, and the inventory of London Zinc decreased by 175 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [10]. - News: The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, and the bond market's expectation of the Fed's policy path has changed [11]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,415, with a daily decline of 1.41%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Lead and London Lead have changed [13]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 5,113 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 125 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [13]. - News: The US Treasury Secretary allowed Iranian oil to flow from the Gulf, and China's relevant departments emphasized maintaining the stability of the financial market [14]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 345,730, with a daily decline of 6.61%. The trading volume and positions of Shanghai Tin and London Tin have changed [17]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 1,037 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 10 tons. The spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have changed [17]. - Macro and Industry News: The US has no plan to ban oil and gas exports, and Trump asked Israel not to attack Iranian energy facilities [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy futures have changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,180, with a decrease of 620 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of each variety have also changed [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of aluminum, alumina, and casting aluminum alloy has changed, and the spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures have also changed [20]. - Comprehensive News: The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and Israel will suspend air strikes on Iranian energy facilities [21]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have declined. For example, the closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 506.95, with a decline of 7.49%. The trading volume and positions of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory and spreads of platinum and palladium have changed [22]. - Macro and Industry News: The interest - rate futures market has priced in a very small Fed rate - cut this year and has started to bet on rate hikes. Israel will suspend attacks on Iranian gas fields [24][25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 131,550, with a decrease of 3,650 compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,855, with a decrease of 165 compared to the previous day. The trading volume and positions of nickel and stainless steel have changed [26]. - Industry - Chain Data: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains have changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,087, with a decrease of 6 compared to the previous day [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore products, and some nickel - mine operations in different regions have changed, such as the restart of a nickel - mine in Guatemala and the suspension of operations due to a landslide in Indonesia [26][27][30].